Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 New Hampshire Motor Speedway, New Hampshire 301

Last Saturday night’s race marked the halfway point of the season. Congratulations to Kyle Busch on picking up his second win of the season and scoring the maximum points by leading the most laps in the race. There are now only eight races left before the start of the Chase and we have ten drivers locked in.

Kyle still needs to make up 87 points and overtake five other drivers in the standings to move into the top thirty in points and qualify for the Chase. Those drivers are Cole Whitt, David Gilliland, Brett Moffitt, Alex Bowman, and Michael Annett. Barring any total catastrophes on the track, I think Kyle will gain those points over the next eight races and make the Chase.

NEW HAMPSHIRE 301

This week the series heads to Loudon, New Hampshire and the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the New Hampshire 301. NHMS is a 1.058-mile oval speedway with minimal banking around the track. In other words, this is considered a “flat track” by NASCAR standards. The drivers who are normally good at places like Phoenix and on the road-courses should do fine here.

Jimmie Johnson: I am picking Jimmie to win his fifth race of the season this week in Loudon. Jimmie has won three races here during his career and has finished in the top ten eighteen times in twenty-six starts at this track. He has also finished in the top ten here in thirteen of his last sixteen starts. With stats like that, Jimmie is a driver you definitely want on your roster this weekend.

Kurt Busch: Kurt also has won three races at this track during his career and even though he hasn’t run that well here for the past five seasons, Kurt has been very good on the flatter tracks this season. I think Kurt will come to the track with a car that has the potential to win this race. Once they get their set-up figured out during practice, I think he will qualify well and run up front for most of this race.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has two wins and has finished second here three times in his eighteen starts. He looked very good last week at Kentucky and it seems like this team keeps improving as we get closer to the Chase. I look for Denny to have another good run this weekend and be in contention for the win late in this race. Every win he can pick up before the Chase just gives him that many more bonus points once the Chase begins.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is still looking for his first win of the season. As of right now he looks like he should make the Chase on points but, if he has a couple of problems in a couple of races and we get a couple of first time winners on the season, he could find himself on the outside looking in during his last season of racing. He has three wins and twenty-two top ten finishes in forty starts at this track.

Brad Keselowski: Brad’s worst finish here in his last seven starts has been eleventh. He also picked up a win during that stretch and had a very good car last weekend. Most of Brad’s problems seem to be mechanical or, mistakes made on pit road. I think he had the best car last week at Kentucky and probably would have won that race if he didn’t lose so many spots on his pit stops. I think these issues will be addressed this week.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has one win at this track and, like Kurt Busch, he has been very good on the flatter tracks. This team is just looking for a few more wins and trying to become more consistent as we get closer to the Chase. New Hampshire is the location of the second race in the Chase so, all of the drivers who are already locked in are going to be doing some testing to get ready for when this race really means something to them.

Matt Kenseth: Matt also has won a race at NHMS. He has finished in the top ten in half of his thirty starts here and his win came in the fall of 2013. The JGR teams have all found more speed over the past six races and Matt is always calm and relaxed behind the wheel. He knows that if he relays pertinent information to his crew-chief he will get the changes he needs to his car to become more competitive as the race gets closer to the end.

Kyle Busch: Last week’s winner and the driver who really needs to run well every race for the next eight weeks so that he can qualify for the Chase has been on a roll in New Hampshire. Kyle has finished second in three of the past four races here and is on a mission to make the Chase and have a shot at winning his first championship. However, he can’t take a lot of chances and get caught up in wrecks so, where do you draw the line?

Ryan Newman: Ryan has won three races at this track in his career and has finished in the top ten in sixteen of his twenty-six starts here. Seven of those top ten finishes came in his last eleven starts and he really needs to start running better on a consistent basis if he wants to make the Chase once again this season. He made it last year without winning a race and almost won the championship. I don’t think he wants to wait and see if he can make it on points once again this year.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has only run two races at this track but, he finished in the top five in both of them. To finish second and third in your only two races at this track is very impressive and Kyle is my Dark Horse pick this week. I liked him last week at Kentucky and while he didn’t get the finish he was looking for there, he was fastest in both practices before the rains came. I think he will do well once again this weekend.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Kyle Larson
  • Carl Edwards
  • Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Justin Allgaier
  • David Ragan

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Brad Keselowski
  3. Kurt Busch
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Paul Menard

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KENTUCKY, QUAKER STATE 400

As we near the half-way point of the season, NASCAR moves back north to Kentucky Speedway. Let’s hope that this week’s race does not leave us holding our breath after a dangerous finish at 3:00AM in the morning. The track in Sparta is a newer one for the series, and there is no long-term data. Based on previous races at the track, my recommendation would be to front-load your lineup this week for the first three roster spots and fill the remaining roster spots with the best budget drivers available. Nine of the 10 top-drivers in Fantasy Live points per race at Kentucky have a salary cap figure of $24 or higher. I have a feeling one car will lead the majority of laps and our standing will be determined by who chooses the dominant car.

My first roster spot has the highest likelihood of success of any driver due to his success this season. Kevin Harvick has the most laps led of any driver in the series and has 10 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races in 2015. He also enjoys a series-best average finish position and 93% of his laps in the top-15. His track data is not as impressive, but is not bad enough to scare him off your roster. Harvick carries an 11th place average finish position, two top-10 finishes, and 83% of his laps in the top-15 in Kentucky races. At this point, the majority of Fantasy Live teams are starting Harvick week in and week out. There is no reason to make a change.

While the first driver was chosen due to his 2015 success, my second spot in my roster is a driver with track success and 2015 difficulties. Kyle Busch has three top-5 finishes and four top-10 finishes already in Kentucky. His 274 laps led and 139 fast laps are both second-best in the series. Also, Kyle Busch has spent 94% of his laps in the top-15. While he has not enjoyed the best luck since returning to the series from a broken leg, Kyle Busch is a high-risk choice who has a decent chance to become the dominant car in Kentucky.

Brad Keselowski has nine top-10 finishes through the first 15 races in 2015. He is in the top-10 in average finish position, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance data. With two victories at Kentucky, Keselowski is a solid option for your roster. His 346 laps led and 171 fast laps are the most in the series in Sparta. I like Keselowski’s chances for success this week. With a front-loaded lineup, there is little room for the final two budget drivers. Michael Annett finish 18th last year in Kentucky. With his low salary cap mark, he will provide value if he finishes anywhere near last year’s race (6.67 points per dollar!) There is nothing I like about Landon Cassill. He has a pedestrian 29th place average in Kentucky and an average finish position of 31.7 in 2015. He is my recommendation for now, but the fifth spot may change after qualifying.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned over the past five Kentucky race by each driver. Next, we divide this number by the salary cap figure to determine which driver provides the most salary cap driver. Martin Truex Jr. has been one of the top-3 drivers this season and has success at intermediate-sized tracks. With 14 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races this season, he could easily bump Kyle Busch or Keselowski in my lineup. For now, he if off my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Kentucky numbers to further illustrate the formulas.

MARTIN TRUEX JR AT KANSAS

  • Average finish position at Kentucky: 13th place equals 31 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus three equals 3 points per race
  • Laps led: 1 lap equals 0.1 points per race
  • Fast laps: 6 laps equals 0.6 points per race
  • Total points earned by race: 34.7 points per race
  • Salary cap figure: $25.00
  • Points per dollar: 34.7 points divided by $25.00 equals 1.40 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy points per dollar for each driver at Kentucky. For rookies with no track history, we will use their 2015 numbers. As always, feel free to post your lineup in the comments. Good luck this week as we hit the half-way point of another great NASCAR season.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 3.68
  • Brad Keselowski 3.53
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.87
  • Matt Kenseth 2.54
  • Jeff Gordon 1.67
  • Kurt Busch 1.52
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.46
  • Joey Logano 1.41
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.40
  • Kevin Harvick 1.26
  • Jamie McMurray 0.80
  • Denny Hamlin 0.78

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 2.13
  • Carl Edwards 1.64
  • Ryan Newman 1.16
  • Paul Menard 0.91
  • Clint Bowyer 0.85
  • Aric Almirola 0.41
  • Kyle Larson (-1.28)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.58
  • Tony Stewart 1.56
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.40
  • Greg Biffle 1.11

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.54
  • Casey Mears 2.32
  • David Gilliland 2.14
  • Cole Whitt 1.67
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
  • Danica Patrick 1.44

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 6.67
  • Alex Kennedy 3.21*
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.96*
  • Justin Allgaier 2.53
  • Brett Moffitt 2.38*
  • Jeb Burton 2.20*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
  • Landon Cassill 1.91
  • JJ Yeley 1.48
  • Josh Wise 1.18
  • Alex Bowman 0.63
  • Michael McDowll 0.16

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Kentucky Speedway, Quaker State 400

All I have to say is WOW! I know that NASCAR wants to get the races in on the day they are scheduled but, how many people in the Eastern and Central time zones stayed up for the race and how many people who had tickets to the race stayed to watch it? I bet most left and figured it was going to be run on Monday. How about NBC? I bet they weren’t very happy having to show a race that late at night with less than normal viewers for a holiday weekend race. NASCAR wants to be a family sport. I wonder how many young children got to stay up and watch that race.

QUAKER STATE 400

I’m just glad that Austin Dillon was able to walk away from the wreck he had at the end of the race. I got to see the video on Monday and I still can’t believe that he walked away. That goes to show that the safety initiatives NASCAR has implemented over the years are really paying off. Kudos to NASCAR in that respect and great to see that Austin only suffered a few bruises.

Jimmie Johnson: I am picking Jimmie to pick up his first win at Kentucky this weekend. Jimmie has finished in the top ten in each of the four races he has run at Kentucky and is due to break into the win column here. He has been the best of the best on these tracks all season and I don’t see anything changing this weekend.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has one win here and has also finished in the top ten in all four of his races at this track. Kyle has also lead more laps than any other driver and is really looking to get as many top five and ten finishes as he can get to try and make his way into the top thirty in points and qualify for the Chase.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won this race two years ago and is another of four drivers to finish in the top ten in all four of his starts here. Matt is already qualified for the Chase and now he just needs to get more consistent and win some more races. That will give this whole team confidence heading into the Chase when you really need to come away with all of your finishes in the top ten if you want to win a championship.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is the last of the active drivers to finish in the top ten in all of his starts at Kentucky. His best finish here is fifth and he would love to get a win at this track in his last season in NASCAR. Jeff is running out of time to guarantee himself a spot in the Chase with a win and waiting to get in on points is very nerve wracking.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won two of the four races he has run at this track and both of the Penske teams have had a lot of speed this year. Brad has had some problems with mechanical issues during the season which have taken him out of contention in numerous races this year. But, with two wins here, this team will come into the weekend with a lot of confidence that they can get the job done once again.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin’s best finish here is a seventh place finish that he picked up last season. His worst finish here is sixteenth and he has gotten better every time he comes to this track. Kevin has been the person to beat almost every race for a year and a half and this weekend he will once again be stout and have a car capable of winning this race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has two top five finishes at this track and has a lot of confidence after his dominating performance at Daytona last weekend. Dale can work on the handling of his car of the mile and a half tracks as they are where the majority of the races during the Chase are run. These are the tracks you need to run consistently well on during the Chase if you want to win the championship.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has been very good all season and he has really been good at this type of track. Martin is already qualified for the Chase and can work on the adjustments that they make to the car during the races. This team is capable of running with the top tier teams even though they are a single car team.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has finished in the top ten twice at this track and has had cars that are just as fast as Kevin Harvick has all year. Kurt doesn’t have anything to race for except wins as he has been very good on all types of tracks this season. Kurt has a legitimate shot at winning his second career championship.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has two top five finishes at Kentucky and needs to get a win before the Chase starts. The drivers who don’t have a win and are hoping to get in on points are sitting on the razor’s edge. They can have one or two bad races and get knocked out of Chase on points or when other drivers who don’t have a win get the win they need to get in the Chase. No one wants to go to Richmond hoping to make the Chase on points.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KENTUCKY SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Kasey Kahne
  • Kyle Larson

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Danica Patrick
  • Ryan Blaney

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KENTUCKY SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Matt Kenseth

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DAYTONA, COKE ZERO 400

As the NASCAR summer series continues for the 17th race of the season in Daytona, we are already nearing the half-way point of the NASCAR season. Restrictor plate tracks are the most difficult to predict in the season, but provides an opportunity to gain points on your competition.

The nature of the restrictor plates makes passing easy, and also darts drivers from the front to the back of the field. My lineup early in the week will be a number of drivers who are typically successful at Daytona, but who I choose will be strongly influenced by qualifying position. My suggestion would be to find drivers in the back of the field and take advantage of start-to-finish differential. Generally, you will not benefit greatly from laps led or fast laps this week.

Usually track history is one of the most important statistics to determine my lineup on a week-to-week basis. My first lineup choice this week has nothing to do with track success, but Kevin Harvick has found success almost everywhere this year. His numbers are adequate in Daytona, but not overly impressive. He has two top-5 finishes in his last five Daytona races, including a second-place finish earlier this season. Since 2005, Harvick has the sixth-best average finish position for active drivers in the series. He has also seen nine top-10 finishes in his last 21 Daytona races. All these numbers are not enough evidence to start Harvick. Combining decent track numbers with dominant 2015 numbers, Harvick is a good choice for your lineup this week.

This is a good week to save a roster spot for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior has found success at restrictor plate tracks. Over his last five races at Daytona, Junior has an average finish position of 5.6. With three top-5 finishes in five races and 73% of his laps running in the top-15, Junior has proven to be a dependable option on a track where finding dependable drivers is a challenge. Since 2005, the #88 team has eight top-5 finishes at Daytona, the third-most laps led of any active driver, and the best average finish position of any driver. The only thing to keep Junior from my lineup this week would be a high qualifying position.

Most weeks I suggest to front-load your lineup with the three best drivers and fill the remaining spots with value picks. Because there is a low likelihood of a driver dominating in fast laps and laps led this week, I am only choosing two top-tier drivers in order to have higher quality drivers at the bottom of my roster. For the early-week suggestions, I am advising mid-tier drivers who have seen decent success at the track. Casey Mears has an average finish position of 11.6 in his last five Daytona races including four top-10 finishes. His lap-to-lap numbers are not as impressive, but he is worth the risk. Austin Dillon has enjoyed two top-10 finishes in four attempts at the track and a 16th place average finish position. Danica Patrick has two top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 18.2. This strategy enables my lineup to have five drivers who have seen success in Daytona. This lineup is subject to change based on where the drivers qualify. There are many drivers under $10 who provide excellent value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to encourage us to strategically arrange our lineup. Our formula calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Daytona races. Next, we calculate that number by the driver’s salary cap figure to show which drivers are expected to provide value this week. Although he does not get the restrictor plate attention of his teammate, Jimmie Johnson has led the most Daytona laps of any driver over the last five Daytona races. He missed my lineup, but we will use his Daytona statistics to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT DAYTONA

  • Average finish position last five Daytona races: 10.8 equals 33.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: 0.4 equals 0.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Laps Led: 165 laps equals 16.5 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps: 13 equals 1.3 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Total points per race: 51.40
  • Salary cap figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar: 51.4 divided by 27.75 = 1.85 Points per dollar

Below you will find the figures for all drivers this week. For rookie drivers with no Daytona history, we will use their 2015 numbers. We had three DNFs with last week’s suggested Sonoma lineup. All drivers were running well, but mechanical issues and Gilliland’s wreck made for a bad week for my team. I am hoping my suggestions see better success this week. Keep a close eye on qualifying this week and try to find the top drivers who qualify at the back of the field. Feel free to include your roster in the comments below and good luck navigating the restrictor plate track this week.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Denny Hamlin 2.21
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.98
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.85
  • Kurt Busch 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.52
  • Joey Logano 1.32
  • Kyle Busch 1.00
  • Jeff Gordon 0.93
  • Kevin Harvick 0.82
  • Matt Kenseth 0.54
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.28

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 1.39
  • Aric Almirola 1.35
  • Ryan Newman 1.26
  • Carl Edwards 0.50
  • Paul Menard 0.38
  • Kyle Larson 0.02
  • Kasey Kahne (-0.05)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.09
  • Greg Biffle 1.64
  • Aj Allmendinger 0.70
  • Tony Stewart (-0.33)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 4.17
  • Casey Mears 3.93
  • Bobby Labonte 2.91
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.58
  • David Ragan 2.10
  • Danica Patrick 1.98
  • David Gilliland 1.05
  • Trevor Bayne 1.00
  • Cole Whitt 0.77
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.58)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 6.70
  • Alex Bowman 5.87
  • Michael Annett 5.19
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.23*
  • Josh Wise 2.83
  • Brett Moffitt 2.18*
  • Jeb Burton 2.00*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
  • Justin Allgaier 1.86
  • Landon Cassill 1.33
  • Brian Scott 1.06

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.