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Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Bristol Motor Speedway, Food City 500 In Support Of Steve Byrnes And Stand Up To Cancer

Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson, who picked up his second win of the season at Texas Motor Speedway on Saturday night. Jimmie passed Kevin Harvick after the final restart and then held him off to tie Kevin for the most wins on the season so far. It was well worth watching Kevin do everything he could to try and catch Johnson while holding off Dale Earnhardt Jr. for second place.

FOOD CITY 500 IN SUPPORT OF STEVE BYRNES AND STAND UP TO CANCER

This week the series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Food City 500 in Support of Steve Byrnes and Stand Up To Cancer. Steve is a FOX Sports broadcaster that is battling head-and-neck cancer and I wish him the best of luck in his fight and hope to see him back on the broadcast team in the future. Get well Steve!

Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the shortest tracks on the circuit. The track is similar in length to Martinsville, but that is where the similarities end. Where Martinsville is quite flat, Bristol has high banking. Actually it has 26 to 30 degree banking in the corners and the drivers will turn a lap in less than 15-seconds. Qualifying is very important here, because if you qualify in towards the back, you will find yourself about half of a lap behind the leader when you start.

With that in mind, penalties will kill a drivers chances at this track. With the new technology NASCAR is using this year there have been more penalties called in the first seven races of the year than during the entire season last year, and they aren’t even looking at missed or loosed lug nuts! Most of the penalties are do to uncontrolled tires, too many men over the wall, and driving through too many pit stalls. Oh yeah, don’t forget too fast entering or exiting pit road. Teams will have to avoid all penalties to stay in contention this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: I am going to pick Brad as my driver to win this week’s race. Brad has two wins here in ten starts and has finished in the top 5 in four of those ten races. This is the type of racing Brad loves. He can mix it up with other drivers and do a little beating and banging as he works his way through traffic. You can’t let it bother you if you are constantly getting hit by the car behind you at Bristol if you want to win this race.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has five wins at this track and has really run well so far this season. He would like to get a win as he has already worked his way into the top thirty in the standings after being suspended for the first three races of the season. A win would qualify this team for the Chase and I think this is one of the tracks where Kurt will be better than Kevin Harvick with the same setup under their cars.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff also has five wins here in his career. He has also finished in the top ten in more than half of his forty-four starts at this track. Those are impressive numbers when you consider how small the track is and that there are forty-three other cars on the track with you. That means there is always other cars in your general vicinity at all times during the race.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is still looking for his first points race win since the 2013 season. He has won three races at Bristol during his career and has also finished in the top ten here in nineteen of his thirty starts. It seems like the Gibbs cars don’t have quite the speed as the Hendrick cars at this point of the season, but that shouldn’t really matter at this short track.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won three races at this track during his career including winning this race last season. This team seems to be getting a little better every week and they knew there would be growing pains when the season started. As a new team it isn’t surprising that Carl has struggled during parts of races and his finishing position is not where he would like it to be. They will be in victory lane very soon.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has only won one race here during his career, but he seems to finish quite well most of the time. He has finished in the top ten in fourteen of his twenty-six starts at Bristol and we all know that this team can win multiple weeks in a row. With the momentum from last week’s win on their side, they might pull off another victory.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has been close to winning races this season, but he wants to get that win and guarantee himself a spot in the Chase. He has won one race at Bristol before and has finished in the top ten there in fourteen of his thirty career starts. The main thing is to stay out of trouble on pit road this weekend and you will be in contention at the end of the race.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has quietly put together another great season so far. He has slipped a little the last two races, but this week as he heads to Bristol he should be optimistic that he can get his first win of the season. He has won three times at this track and this team has equipment that is very capable of winning races at any track. This weekend will be no different and Ryan could very well find himself in victory lane at the end of the race.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey won this race two years ago for his first victory at Bristol. He has also finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here and has been running better and better every week. This team needs to have better pit stops, as it seems they are constantly losing positions on the track when they pit. You can’t afford to keep giving up spots in the pits, especially at a place like Bristol.

Paul Menard: Paul has finished in the top ten at Bristol in five of his last six starts. This team has been performing well all season and was having a great run at Texas last week until something happened to their ignition system as Paul was running in the top five more than halfway through the race. If this team keeps making improvements and can find themselves in the Chase, they could surprise people like Ryan Newman did last season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Carl Edwards
  • Kasey Kahne
  • Paul Menard

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Brett Moffitt

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Kasey Kahne

Dark Horse: Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TEXAS, DUCK COMMANDER 500

After taking a week off for Easter, we return to racing in Texas. With a few top drivers struggling in Martinsville, some of us had an extra week to brood about the lackluster effort of our fantasy roster. The extra week off allowed me to research data points specific to Fantasy Live for each driver in relation to the first six races in 2015. This data helped me to point to drivers I have not yet considered this season. The conclusion is that you should start drivers with a salary cap figure above $25 and below $10. There were few drivers who provided adequate value in the middle, but generally the best value is at the top and bottom. As a result, my suggested strategy is to front-load your lineup and fill the remaining spots with value choices.

For one reason or another, Joey Logano has avoided my lineups so far this season. For the top drivers in 2015, Logano has the second-most Fantasy Live points per dollar after six races. Also, Logano has the best average finish position in Texas over the last five races. The only track where Logano has enjoyed better lap-to-lap performance over the last five races is at Michigan. When a top driver in the current season is on a top track, he should find your lineup. Joey Logano should provide value for your team this week.

The next pick for my roster is due to his 2015 success as opposed to success in Texas. Kevin Harvick is average 134 laps led per race so far in 2015. Success in laps led and average finish position has translated to a series-best 4.62 fantasy points per dollar this season. While Texas is not his best track in the series, he has averaged a respectable average finish position of 14.8. Also, he has 11 Top Ten finishes since 2005. Harvick gets a slight nod over Keselowski and Johnson due to his historical start in 2015. He will cool off, but I will keep him on my roster until he falls back to earth.

The most surprising success of 2015 is my third pick for my roster. Martin Truex Jr. is one of the few middle-priced driving providing value with 2.43 fantasy points per dollar in 2015. With worse teams, Truex has averaged a 13.2 finish position at Texas. Intermediate tracks are the most friendly to Truex, and he is a top five driver this season. With 15 Top 20 finishes in his last 19 races, Truex has a good change to outperform his value for a seventh week.

Truex’s addition to my roster provides me with a little more flexibility than I am used to for the final two roster spots. The battle for the fourth spot is a toss-up between Casey Mears and David Ragan. Mears has provided slightly higher points per fantasy dollar in 2015, but I feel that Ragan provides more upside. Ragan finally earned a top ten finish in Martinsville. While he has only averaged a 32nd place finish at Texas over the last five races, even an average finish will provide value for his salary cap figure.

I was surprised that the fifth roster pick provided the most value for regular drivers with a salary cap figure below $10. Cole Whitt has quietly been rewarding fantasy owners with 2.72 fantasy points per dollar after six races in 2015. He has a 28.5 average finish position in two Texas races. I like his chances to provide my team with value this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Texas races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each fantasy driver. I am ticked off at Jimmie Johnson after Martinsville. Emotion should be left out of fantasy sports, but he will be off my lineup. His Texas numbers over the last five races are dominating, and I will use these numbers to illustrate our formula. Good luck bouncing back in Texas!

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT TEXAS

  • Average finish position last five Texas races: 6.8 equals 37.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential last five Texas races: Negative 0.8 equals negative 0.8 points per race
  • Laps led last five Texas races: 614 equals 61.4 points per race
  • Fast laps last five Texas races: 283 equals 28.3 points per race
  • Average points per race: 126.1

Below is the Fantasy Points per dollar for each driver over the past five Texas races. For drivers with no track history, we will use their numbers for 2015. This week’s suggested are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.63
  • Brad Keselowski 2.64
  • Joey Logano 2.09
  • Matt Kenseth 1.86
  • Kyle Larson 1.81
  • Denny Hamlin 1.43
  • Jamie McMurray 1.24
  • Kevin Harvick 1.20
  • Jeff Gordon 1.07
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.00

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.06
  • Clint Bowyer 1.90
  • Ryan Newman 1.82
  • Kasey Kahne 1.20
  • Paul Menard 1.20
  • Carl Edwards 1.18
  • Kurt Busch 0.72

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.43
  • Tony Stewart 2.30
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.97
  • Aric Almirola 1.30
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.30
  • Trevor Bayne 1.11
  • Austin Dillon 1.03

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.54
  • Danica Patrick 1.62
  • David Gilliland 1.59
  • Casey Mears 1.44
  • David Ragan 1.08
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.85
  • Ryan Blaney 0.53 *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Brian Scott 3.53 *
  • Michael Annett 3.28
  • Cole Whitt 3.08
  • DiBenedetto 2.40 *
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • JJ Yeley 2.00
  • Landon Cassill 1.83
  • Josh Wise 1.14
  • Brett Moffitt 0.61
  • Michael McDowell 0.56
  • Alex Bowman 0.34

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.