Month: March 2015

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 PHOENIX, CAMPING WORLD 500

kevin harvick victory lane phoenix 2014

The first three weeks of the NASCAR season have been devastating to some fantasy rosters. The unpredictable nature of racing will make us tear our hair out, but is the beauty of playing fantasy NASCAR racing. For those of you with Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards on your roster last week, the race at Phoenix offers an opportunity to gain back some of your points. Phoenix has some drivers who stand out statistically. My advice to you is to front-load your roster and fill the final spots with budget drivers.

There is an obvious choice who should make his way onto your fantasy NASCAR rosters. Over the past five races at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick has an average finish position of 3.4. With 573 laps led in the same time span, Harvick has more than double the second-best driver in this statistical category. Since 2005, Harvick has spent 78% of his laps in the top-15 and has eight top-5 finishes in his last 20 Phoenix races. The combination of early success in 2015 with the track data makes the #4 team a must-own this week.

Although he has stayed quiet so far by his standards, Brad Keselowski is a great candidate for your roster this week. His 5.6 average finish position over the past five Phoenix races is second to Kevin Harvick. His lap-to-lap performance is also second to the #4 team over the same time span. With only five top-10 finishes in his last 11 races at the track, Keselowski does not have long-term track success, but I think he is due for a top-5 finish.

Originally, I had Jimmie Johnson as the third member on my roster. His challenges at Las Vegas scared me enough to switch to his teammate. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been competitive each week this season and has an eighth place average over the last five Phoenix races. His nine top-10 finishes in twenty races is not overly impressive, but he has displayed consistency at the track. I expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to remain competitive this week, and is worth a roster spot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final roster spots. The #18 car is historically one of the best cars in the series. Because of this, one of the budget drivers for your lineup should be David Ragan. While he only has a 31st place average, even average numbers should provide value for your lineup. The final pick performs better than his average at Phoenix. JJ Yeley has an average finish position of 29th place and should provide great value for your lineup. If he comes close to the 3.41 points per fantasy dollar, you will be glad to use him this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply picking the top five drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our points per dollar formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that can be used to predict how many points to expect from each driver. Since I chickened out of putting Jimmie Johnson in my lineup this week, I will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT PHOENIX

  • Average finish position last five years: 16.4 equals 27.6 fantasy points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative seven equals -7 fantasy points per race
  • Laps Led: Two laps equals 0.2 fantasy points per race
  • Fast Laps: 103 laps equals 10.3 fantasy points per race
  • Average number of points per race last five years: 31.1
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 31.1 / 27.25 equals 1.14 points per dollar

Below you will see the Points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommendations are highlighted in bold. Good luck in your lineups in Phoenix.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 4.78
  • Brad Keselowski 2.26
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.06
  • Joey Logano 1.56
  • Jeff Gordon 1.54
  • Denny Hamlin 1.44
  • Matt Kenseth 1.36
  • Jamie McMurray 1.19
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.14
  • Kyle Larson 0.75

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.84
  • Greg Biffle 1.86
  • Kasey Kahne 1.76
  • Ryan Newman 1.56
  • Tony Stewart 1.47
  • Paul Menard 1.03
  • Clint Bowyer 0.65
  • Brian Vickers 0.63

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.84
  • Aric Almirola 1.37
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.62
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.48
  • Austin Dillon 0.37

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.67
  • Casey Mears 2.00
  • David Gilliland 1.65
  • Danica Patrick 1.60
  • David Ragan 1.08
  • Regan Smith 0.55

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 3.27
  • Michael Annett 2.47
  • Landon Cassill 2.12
  • Reed Sorenson 1.78
  • Justin Allgaier 1.05
  • Alex Bowman 0.93
  • Cole Whitt 0.55
  • Josh Wise 0.53
  • Jeb Burton * 1.24
  • Brett Moffitt* 3.86
  • Brendan Gaughan * 2.86

* No Phoenix statistics available. This number represents the points per dollar for all 2015 races.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Phoenix International Raceway, CampingWorld.com 500

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick on winning the race in Las Vegas this past weekend. We now have three different winners in three races this year. Kevin dominated the race and there wasn’t anyone who had anything for him at the end. Martin Truex Jr. continued his strong season with a second place finish, while Ryan Newman rounded out the top three. This week the series stays out west and I think we will see our first repeat winner of the season.

CAMPINGWORLD.COM 500

The series stays west as they head to Phoenix International Raceway for the running of the CampingWorld.com 500.
Phoenix is a one-mile, low-banked D-shaped tri-oval race track located in Avondale, Arizona. This is the only non-road course track that measures their race mileage in kilometers. That means the race is not 500-miles or 500 laps, It is actually 312-miles long.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is my pick to win back-to-back races this week. He has won four of the last five races here. That makes four out of seven since the track was reconfigures in 2011 and he also finished second in one of those other races. It is hard to bet against a guy with stats like that.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has finished in the top ten in his last four races here including a second place finish in this race last season. The way this team is running so far, Dale might be able to move up one more spot and win his first race of the year and qualify for the Chase. No matter what he does this weekend, we will see him win races soon.

Brad Keselowski: Brad hasn’t had the best start to his season, but this week that can all change. Brad has finished in the top six in five of his last six starts at this track. He has also led laps in five of those races and sat on the front row in both of last year’s races. This is the week this team might see their luck change to the better.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has been fast all year and now he just needs the luck to swing around for him. Jeff has four top ten finishes in his last six starts here and finished second in the fall race last season. In his final full-time season, Jeff would like nothing better than to get an early win and ensure himself a shot at a final championship before he retires.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won four races here, finished in the top five fourteen times, and the top ten eighteen times. That has all been accomplished in only twenty-three races. He already has one win this year, so he is in the Chase. He is a must for your fantasy team this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny always run well at the shorter, flatter tracks and Phoenix is no exception. He has finished in the top five here in four of his last six starts and this team looks better at this point of the season than he did last year. He has the equipment to get the job done and I think he will be a contender this week.

Carl Edwards: Carl has two career wins at Phoenix and has had good cars every week this year. He might be pressing a little too hard with his new team and he just needs to relax and race his race. Once this team really gets used to working together they will start to win races. A short track might the thing to get this team on the right track.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has been very good so far this year and it shouldn’t surprise anyone after what he did last season. He has always run well at Phoenix and has one win and four poles to prove it. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him win the race this weekend if he can put himself in the top five with 50-laps to go.

Joey Logano: Joey has three straight top ten finish here and has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run here. This team already has a win this year and can so a little experimenting on tracks that are going to have races during the Chase and Phoenix is one of them. They will take everything they learn this weekend and apply to their strategy and car come this November.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is still looking to break his winless streak, but he hasn’t won here since 2002. He is capable of winning this race, but I would hold off on using him this week. He runs better on the more banked tracks and the longer tracks on the circuit and there will be plenty of time to use him later this season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle
  • Clint Bowyer
  • AJ Allmendinger

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Regan Smith

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Greg Biffle

Stay Away From: Brian Vickers

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 LAS VEGAS, KOBALT 400

NASCAR Fantasy Live commercial

Last week’s race took a toll on many of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters. We hope for more consistent finishes from the top drivers during the first leg of the west coast swing in Las Vegas. This week’s recommended strategy is to pick your three top drivers and fill the final two spots with value picks.

NOT PLAYING FAVORITES

There is not a team that is a clear-cut favorite statistically this week.

Because of this, my first pick this week is one of the consistent drivers in the series coming off his first win of the season. Over the last five races at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson has a sixth-place average finish and the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Half of his starts since 2005 have resulted in a top-5 finish at the track. Johnson has an excellent chance of a top-5 finish and is a low-risk option on your roster.

Carl Edwards, with a 5.6 average finish position over the past five races, has the best average finish numbers in the series. His salary cap number took a dive after Daytona and can be on your roster at a better price. Like Johnson, Edwards has finished in the top-5 in half of his races since 2005. Historically, Edwards spends 70% of his laps in the top-15, which is third-best in the series behind Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

Maybe as a NASCAR Fantasy Live writer, I can be too technical when I am annoyed that the Fantasy Live commercial airing during races boasts a lineup that is significantly over the Fantasy Live salary cap. Random misgivings aside, NASCAR moves west for the next three weeks after a cold weekend in Georgia.

Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have led the most laps over the last five races, and have some of the best points-per-dollar rates of any drivers. Both drivers will stay off my roster this week. For Gordon, his car has been competitive. Luck has not been on his side so far in 2015. This may not be fair, but luck plays an important role in Fantasy NASCAR. Tony Stewart is off to a slow start this season, which is not unusual for him. I need to see more from his team before I consider rostering him.

The third roster spot is a toss-up between Logano and Harvick. Their numbers are very close with a slight edge going to Logano. In the last five years, Logano has an average finish position of 12.2. His team has started the season hot and this pick has more to do with the start of the season. Since 2005, Logano has spent 62% of his laps in the top-15. My biggest concern with Logano is that he only has one top-5 finish at Las Vegas. Given his early success, he is worth the risk. Qualifying position may determine if I go with Harvick or Logano when I officially set my roster late in the week.

With the top drivers absorbing a high percentage of the salary cap, the remaining two spots will be filled by budget drivers. David Ragan has averaged a 25th place finish over the last five years. With Kyle Busch’s equipment, he has a good chance for a top-20 finish. Trevor Bayne has an 18th place average in his last four races at Las Vegas. He also has three top-20 finishes in four attempts. Though I am not expecting points from fast laps and laps led from either driver, a middle-of-the-pack finish will make both drivers valuable.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average points earned per race for each driver. Then, we divide the average points by the Fantasy Live salary cap number. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect for each fantasy dollar. Since I narrowly kept Kevin Harvick off my roster, I will use his numbers to illustrate the points-per-dollar formula.

KEVIN HARVICK AT LAS VEGAS

Average finish position last five Las Vegas races: 16th place equals 28 fantasy points per race. Start-to-finish differential: Plus 1 equals 1 fantasy point per race. Laps Led: 29 equals 2.9 points per race.

  • Fast Laps: 72 equals 7.2 points per race
  • Total points per race last five Las Vegas races: 39.1
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
  • Points per Dollar: 39.1 / 28 equals 1.41 Fantasy Points Per Dollar

Below you will find the fantasy points-per-dollar for each driver. Suggested picks are in bold. Brian Scott and Matt DiBenedetto have no 2015 or track data and are not included on this list. Good luck having a successful third week of the Fantasy NASCAR season. Feel free to share your roster decisions in the comment section at the end of the article.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.62
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.17
  • Kasey Kahne 2.17
  • Matt Kenseth 2.16
  • Jeff Gordon 1.88
  • Kevin Harvick 1.41
  • Denny Hamlin 1.33
  • Joey Logano 1.27
  • Brad Keselowski 1.21
  • Kyle Larson 1.03
  • Jamie McMurray 0.89

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.84
  • Carl Edwards 2.61
  • Paul Menard 2.33
  • Brian Vickers 1.41
  • Greg Biffle 1.31
  • Ryan Newman 1.15
  • Clint Bowyer 1.00

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.03
  • Austin Dillon 1.28
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.88
  • Aric Almirola 0.79
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 3.23
  • David Ragan 2.19
  • Justin Allgaier 1.90
  • Danica Patrick 1.60
  • Casey Mears 1.56
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.66
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.58) *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.00
  • Reed Sorenson 2.29
  • Jeb Burton 2.00 *
  • Regan Smith 1.94
  • Travis Kvapil 1.60
  • David Gilliland 1.57
  • Alex Bowman 0.80
  • Josh Wise 0.23
  • Brendan Gaughan 0.00
  • Cole Whitt 0.00
  • Landon Cassill (-0.12)
  • Michael McDowell (-0.13)
  • JJ Yeley (-0.18)

* Jeb Burton and Ryan Blaney are using their 2015 totals from all races since they have no track history.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kobalt 400

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Kobalt 400

Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson on winning his first race of the season and virtually ensuring he will have a spot in the 2015 Chase. Once again we saw which teams will be competitive on a weekly basis and which teams have a lot of work to do if they want to compete for the championship this year.

KOBALT 400

This week the series heads out west to Las Vegas Nevada to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the running of the Kobalt 400. This is another mile and a half oval track with just slightly less banking than at Atlanta. This will mean that the speeds will be a little lower this week and the race is only 400-miles, so there should be less engine issues.

Other than that, the drivers who were fast at Atlanta should be fast once again this week at Las Vegas. I also think that the track won’t be as slick as the track was at Atlanta and the temperatures should be higher too. With that said lets see how are drivers will fare this week.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win the race this week at Las Vegas. Kevin was the fastest car for most of the weekend at Atlanta where he came from the back of the pack to the front in the blink of an eye. A poor restart late in the race probably cost this team their first win of the season. If things go according to plan this week Kevin will be sitting in victory lane at the end of the race.

Joey Logano: Joey was fast all weekend also and the team just missed with their final adjustment of last week’s race. The engine issues I was worried about after Daytona have been corrected and this team should have another fast car this week. The temperature might change more during this week’s race and that means they will have to stay on top of the adjustments they need to make to be in contention at the end of the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie won the race at Atlanta, so he should have a car capable of winning back to back races. Jimmie and crew-chief Chad Knaus work well together and they seem to make the right adjustments to get their car where they want it to be late in the race. It always seems like when Jimmie wins a race he wins multiple races in a short period of time and that could happen again.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff had a good car last week also, but his luck just wasn’t of the good type. Bad things don’t happen to good teams consistently, so this week his luck should change and he will have a car capable of winning this race. Jeff really wants to have a great year before he retires from full-time competition at the end of the season.

Matt Kenseth: It’s hard to believe that Matt hasn’t won a points race in over a year, and I think that will come to an end very shortly. Matt is too good of a driver and has equipment that puts him in contention every week. He also remains calm throughout the race and makes good decisions which give him the opportunity to win races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale had another great race and almost made the pass on Jimmie on the final restart of the race at Atlanta. This team looks like they have improved from a very good season last year and they will win multiple races before the start of the Chase. Dale finished second in this race last season and looks like he could be poised to take one more position in this year’s race.

Brad Keselowski: Brad hasn’t had the kind of start he was looking for heading into the start of this season, but he won this race last year and finished third here in 2013. Those facts might give this team the confidence to come into this week and win their first race of the season. Brad is one of the best drivers on the circuit and this team will qualify for the Chase.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won two races at this track and has a string of four straight top five finishes here. Last week they just couldn’t make the correct adjustment to find the speed they needed to have a shot at winning the race. I think Carl has the equipment to be a serious contender for a championship once again this season and once he gets more comfortable with his new team they will start winning races.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey’s best finish at Las Vegas is second which he has accomplished twice. He has also finished in the top ten in six of his eleven starts at this track and he looked good in last week’s race. This team would love to get a win early this year to grab their spot in the Chase without having to wait until the final few races to know if they are in or not.

Ryan Newman: Once again, Ryan is quietly going about his season. You don’t hear much about him, but he always seems to be hanging around the top ten and avoids getting into huge trouble on the track. He has always run well at Vegas and this week should be no different. One of these week’s he is going to surprise people and win a race. Don’t be surprised, Ryan is communicating with his team and they understand each other and make the necessary adjustments to stay in contention every week.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Kasey Kahne
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Regan Smith

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Carl Edwards
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle