Month: March 2015

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Texas Motor Speedway, Duck Commander 500

Congratulations to Denny Hamlin who won his first race of the season at Martinsville and is now virtually qualified for the Chase. Denny had to overcome an early pit road penalty for an uncontrolled tire and fight his way back to the front of the field. Even late in the race he had to pass quite a few cars on a restart and then hold off Brad Keselowski to pick up the win. Great job Denny!

DUCK COMMANDER 500

The series will take a week off to celebrate the Easter holiday weekend and then they will return the following Saturday night to Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Duck Commander 500. Texas Motor Speedway is very similar to Atlanta Motor Speedway in its configuration, but the temperature should be a bit warmer here than it was in Atlanta earlier this season. The 500-mile race will test engines most of all once again during this race.

Matt Kenseth: I’m going to pick Matt to win his first race of the season at Texas on a Saturday night. Matt has two career wins here and has finished in the top five in thirteen of his twenty-five starts. This team has been getting better and better each week this year and I think this is the type of track that Matt will capitalize on that improvement.

Kevin Harvick: Let’s not rule out Kevin anywhere on the circuit. Even though he didn’t finish in the top two at Martinsville, he managed to lead a bunch of laps there and he will be even better on this fast track. He will probably qualify in the top five once again and lead more laps in this race. He will also be in contention at the end if he can stay out of trouble early in the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie had a terrible time at Martinsville last weekend and this team wants to forget all about those problems. Jimmie won the race this year at Atlanta, so he should arrive at the track with a great setup under his car. This team is already qualified for the Chase because of the Atlanta win and just needs to keep improving over the weeks so they are ready to go once the Chase starts.

Joey Logano: Joey has been fast all season and should be fast once again at Texas. He sat on the pole at Atlanta and lead a bunch of laps there before settling for a fourth place finish. This team has been very fast early in races this year, but they just haven’t quite made the right adjustments late in the race to stay at the front. Even then, top five and ten finishes are still very good and winning the Daytona 500 is awesome.

Dale Earhardt Jr.: Dale had a rough time at Martinsville, but this team has still been very stout the rest of the year. I think this is the type of track this team really excels at as Dale loves to run the high line on these tracks. He might not qualify in the top ten, but he will be able to make his way to the front and they seem to know how to adjust their car to keep up with the track as the race progresses.

Carl Edwards: Carl looked good at Martinsville until very late in the race and he has three wins under his belt at Texas. Like I said with Matt Kenseth, the Gibbs teams are all looking better and better every week and Carl is still settling in with his new team. It won’t be long before they start winning races.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has been very good all season and this team has shown a lot of speed. This weekend should be no different. Evan though Martin has only finished in the top five twice in nineteen starts, I think this team is on top of their game right now. Will they be able to improve as the year progresses and keep up with the big budget teams? That question can only be answered by watching them every week, but for right now they are competitive every week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has won twice at Texas and has momentum on his side after picking up the win at Martinsville last weekend. Another of the Gibbs drivers who are all getting better every week. This team doesn’t have any pressure on themselves anymore as they have qualified for the Chase. Now they just need to concentrate on staying consistent and getting faster so they feel good about themselves when the Chase starts.

Jeff Gordon: Another late race mistake on pit road cost Jeff a shot at the win at Martinsville. This team has been good all year, but seem to have something happen late in races that takes them out of contention. Jeff only has one career win at this track, but he did finish second in this race last season. Jeff wants to get qualified for the Chase as soon as possible in his last full-time season driving the #24 car.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has always been good at Texas no matter what team he has been driving for. He has also been good in all of the races he has run this season and is still looking for his first win so he can qualify for the Chase. He started out good at Martinsville before losing the handle on his car and fading. Texas should be more to his liking.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Carl Edwards
  • Kurt Busch
  • Kasey Kahne

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT INSERT TRACK NAME

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, STP 500

After three races on the west coast, NASCAR moves back east to the short track of Martinsville Speedway. There are no sure things in racing, but we have a better chance of being right at Martinsville than most weeks. Due to 500 laps at this race, laps led and fast laps are at a premium. I would suggest front-loading your lineup this week in an effort to capture these numbers.

Fantasy analysts and players love Martinsville because generally the drivers perform as expected. The predictable nature of the track usually make us all feel smarter for one week.

CREAM OF THE CROP

Two drivers who will find their way to the top two roster spots are Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Over the past five races at Martinsville, Johnson has averaged 195 laps led per race. Over the same time span, he has an average finish position of 8.2. His historical data is also impressive. In his last 20 races at the track, 15 have resulted in a top-5 finish. Since 2005, Jimmie Johnson has spent 89% of his laps in the top-15 and had a series-best 2,576 laps led. Johnson is a safe bet to be an asset to your fantasy lineup this week.

Jeff Gordon has numbers that are equally impressive. He has a 5th place average over his past five Martinsville races. Since 2005, Gordon has 16 top-5 finishes in 20 races. He also has a 5th place average finish and 88% of his laps in the top-15 during the same time span. With 1,869 laps led, Gordon is second to Johnson in this category. Gordon is a dependable driver to choose this week for your lineup.

REMAINING ROSTER SPOTS

The choice for the third driver for your lineup is not as clear of a choice. One can choose a driver with recent success in the series like Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, or Brad Keselowski. The other strategy would be to choose a driver with historical track data like Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, or Clint Bowyer. Since Martinsville is generally a track with predictable outcomes, I am leaning towards choosing a driver with a successful track history.

Denny Hamlin has excellent long-term numbers at the track. His 16th place average finish position over the last five races is enough to scare me away from adding him to my roster. Kenseth has an 8th place average finish over his last five Martinsville races, but I am going to lean towards Clint Bowyer this week because of his lower salary cap figure.

While his 2015 effort has been mediocre, Clint Bowyer has enough recent success at the paperclip track to be worth the risk. If he makes his way into your lineup, keep an eye on the qualifying sessions and practice times to make sure he is fast. Bowyer has an average finish position of 5.2 over the past five races and the third-best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Since 2005, Bowyer has the fifth-best average finish position at the track (behind Gordon, Johnson, Hamlin, and Dale Jr.) With 12 top-10 finishes in his last 18 races, Bowyer should be an option in your lineup that will give your lineup additional flexibility for the final two spots.

While consistency is beneficial for the top of your lineup, consistency can be an enemy when attempting to select budget options at the bottom of your roster. Bowyer’s cap value is low enough to provide the salary cap room to add Justin Allgaier onto my roster. He has a 20th place average in two races last year. In a race where budget options are at a premium, I expect Allgaier to be a valuable addition to my roster if he matches his track average. He is slightly better than last year and specializes on short tracks.

The fifth choice for my roster was originally for David Ragan’s team, but I went a different direction with the pick. With Chase Elliot starting his NASCAR career at a $9.00 salary cap value, I will take the risk on the rookie. The expectations are low because he will be driving the #25 car. A $9.00 cap is a low risk, and there is a high reward. If he looks suspect in qualifying, then I will switch my pick back to David Ragan.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on www.nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply choosing the top driver, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver for the last five Martinsville races. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure on Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that will indicate which drivers provide the most value for each fantasy dollar. Since Denny Hamlin was a near miss on my roster, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the points per dollar formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 16.8 equals 27.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 13.5 equals (-13.5) points per race
  • Laps Led last five Martinsville races: 94 equals 9.4 points per race
  • Fast Laps last five Martinsville races: 117 equals 11.7 points per race
  • Total points per race: 40.08
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $25.50
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 40.08 / $25.50 equals 1.57 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommended picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for drivers who do not have a track history. Good luck in fantasy racing this week!

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.79
  • Jeff Gordon 3.73
  • Matt Kenseth 3.04
  • Denny Hamlin 1.57
  • Kasey Kahne 1.46
  • Joey Logano 1.43
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Kevin Harvick 1.16
  • Kyle Larson 0.09

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 3.78
  • Greg Biffle 2.25
  • Paul Menard 1.38
  • Carl Edwards 1.33
  • Kurt Busch 1.12
  • Ryan Newman 0.81

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.97
  • Austin Dillon 2.42
  • Aric Almirola 2.01
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.96
  • Tony Stewart 1.39
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.56

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.96
  • David Gilliland 2.59
  • Danica Patrick 2.03
  • Casey Mears 1.78
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.87
  • David Ragan 0.86

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.67
  • JJ Yeley 3.52
  • Brett Moffitt 3.25 *
  • Landon Cassill 3.23
  • Cole Whitt 2.57
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • Mike Bliss 1.90 *
  • Alex Kennedy 1.80 *
  • Josh Wise 1.67
  • Jeb Burton 1.35 *
  • Mike DiBenedetto 0.95 *
  • Alex Bowman 0.70
  • Chase Elliot n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Martinsville Speedway, STP 500

Congratulations to Brad Keselowski on getting his first win of the season at Auto Club Speedway last weekend. The win virtually guarantees Brad a spot in the Chase, so both of the Penske drivers are in. Getting a win this early in the season takes a lot of pressure off of those teams, and they can concentrate on getting even better before the start of the Chase.

STP 500

The series heads back east this week for the running of the STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville is one of the shortest tracks on the circuit at .526-miles. It is also relatively flat with only twelve degrees of banking in the corners. You really need to qualify well here so you get a good pit stall. Plus, you need to have a really good handling car so that you don’t get lapped early in the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won eight races at Martinsville and has finished in the top five in eighteen of his twenty-six starts there. He is my pick to win his second race of the season and he is a must to have on your team this weekend. He has also finished in the top five in four of his last five races at this track.

Jeff Gordon: Not to be outdone by Jimmie, Jeff also has eight wins at this track and he should be one of the drivers to give Jimmie a run for his money this week. Jeff has finished in the top three in three of his last four starts here and he has twenty-eight top five finishes in his forty-four career starts at this track.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has four wins at this track and has finished in the top five in half of his eighteen starts here. Denny has been running well lately and should have another good run once again this weekend. I think handling is worth more than power at this track and so far this season, the Toyota’s seem to be a little bit behind the Chevrolet’s in that department. Like I said, that shouldn’t make that much of a difference here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale won the race at Martinsville last fall and has seven top ten finishes in his last nine starts here. This team has been good all season and he should have confidence coming back here after that win last season. It is too bad that most of the drivers that run well at this track are all in the same group in the Yahoo league.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has yet to win a race at this track, but he has finished in the top ten in his last five starts at Martinsville. Clint needs a good finish to give himself and his team some confidence as the season progresses. Clint has finished in the top ten here in twelve of his eighteen career starts which is very good for anyone on this track.

Tony Stewart: This could be the track that Tony breaks out of his funk at. Tony finished fourth here last fall and has finished in the top ten in more than half of his starts here. With the way Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch have looked this season, Tony should have the equipment to get the job done here.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has run well all year once again and is getting closer to winning a race all the time. He has one win at Martinsville and finished third here last fall. This is the type of track that he likes to run at and this weekend should be no different. I won’t be surprised when he comes away with a win sometime this season.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has finished in the top ten here in half of his ten career starts. With momentum on their side this team could reel off some consecutive wins. However, he has only led laps in two of his ten races here and his best finish so far is fourth. I think there are better choices to pick for your team this week.

Kevin Harvick: With eight straight top two finishes it’s hard to pick against Kevin any week. He has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in twelve of his twenty-seven starts at this track. Once again there are better tracks to use Kevin at even with the streak he is on right now. I will save him for some other time.

Joey Logano: Joey finished in the top five in both of the Martinsville races last year and he also led a bunch of laps in both of those races. This team needs to figure out how to finish a race because they seem to start out fast every week and then fade away towards the end of the race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Clint Bowyer
  • Tony Stewart
  • Greg Biffle
  • AJ Allmendinger

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Brett Moffitt

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Ryan Newman

Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 AUTO CLUB, AUTO CLUB 400

For your sake, I hope that Kevin Harvick found his way onto your fantasy lineups last week. After watching the #4 team dominate the 312 lap effort in Phoenix, NASCAR moves to the third track in the west coast swing. Although there are many drivers with favorable track data, Auto Club is a challenging track to choose as there are not too many standout drivers.

For those of you who have already dropped in the standings, there is an opportunity to gain points with riskier picks. Some of us have seen a positive start to the season and can settle on safer picks. My advice to you is to continue to front-load your lineup with the top drivers and fill your bottom two spots with budget picks.

The driver with the best numbers in California, Kyle Busch, is out indefinitely with a broken leg. As a result, I am going to lean towards drivers who have long-term success at the track. Kyle Larson and Brian Vickers have a successful history at the track, but I am going to choose other options because both drivers have limited race data. Either driver can help a lineup near the bottom of the standings. Although not my suggestion, there is value for several drivers in the $15.00 to $19.75 range, and five average drivers may prove to be an effective strategy.

The active driver with the best lap-to-lap performance at the track over the last five years is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has ten top-5 finishes in the race in California. During the same time span, Johnson has spent 93% of his laps in the top-15 and has an average running position of 5.8. As a west coast driver, I like his chances in a track close to home. Since he has seen early success in 2015, the #48 team has a high probability for success this week.

My choice for the second roster spot is one of the safest drivers to pick in the series. For some reason, it seems to me that Matt Kenseth is consistently running in 8th place at all times this season. His numbers reflect this at Auto Club, where he has an average finish position of 8.8 since 2005. In the same time span, Kenseth has the third-most laps led. He has also seen recent success as evidenced by a 12.2 average finish position over his last five races in California. He has earned 12 top-10 finishes in his last 16 races. If you are at the top of your league in points, Kenseth is a dependable roster option.

As we continue the theme of safe drivers, Kevin Harvick has been on fire since late last year. While this race is not one of his best, his numbers are favorable enough to justify his roster spot. With only 10 laps led and a 12th place average finish, Harvick has finished near the top. Also, he has eight top-10 finishes in 16 races. Based on his string of 1st and 2nd place finishes, Harvick has to be considered as a lock in your lineup as long as he stays hot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not much wiggle room for the last two roster spots. Cole Whitt finished in 18th place last year. While, I am not anticipating a repeat finish, there is enough potential reward for his bargain price. For the same reason, the 5th roster spot will go to Michael Annett. Annett finished in 19th place last year. Like Whitt, the sample size is small, but worth the risk at a low dollar value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide this number by the salary cap number in Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that shows which drivers should provide value for your salary cap budget each week. Carl Edwards has decent numbers at Auto Club, and we will use his numbers at the track to illustrate the formula.

CARL EDWARDS AT AUTO CLUB

  • Average finish position last five Auto Club races: 11.8 equals 32.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish position last five Auto Club races: Plus 4.8 equals 4.8 points per race
  • Total laps led last five Auto Club races: 0 laps equals 0 points per race
  • Fast laps led last five Auto Club races: 11 laps equals 1.1 points per race
  • Total points per race: 38.1 points
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $22.00
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 38.1/ 22 = 1.73

The points per race for each driver this week is listed below. Suggested drivers are highlighted in bold. Good luck in the fifth week of the Fantasy NASCAR season.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.10
  • Kyle Larson 2.00
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
  • Jeff Gordon 1.57
  • Kevin Harvick 1.39
  • Matt Kenseth 1.30
  • Kasey Kahne 1.15
  • Jamie McMurray 0.86
  • Denny Hamlin 0.65
  • Joey Logano 0.61
  • Brad Keselowski 0.54

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 2.00
  • Paul Menard 1.81
  • Ryan Newman 1.75
  • Carl Edwards 1.73
  • Clint Bowyer 1.52

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.85
  • Brian Vickers 2.61
  • Austin Dillon 2.37
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.21
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.18
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.32
  • Aric Almirola 0.69

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 3.00
  • Casey Mears 1.99
  • David Gilliland 1.93
  • David Ragan 1.71
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.43
  • Trevor Bayne 0.97

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Alex Bowman 5.33
  • Cole Whitt 4.80
  • Michael Annett 3.74
  • Brett Moffitt 3.50*
  • Mike Bliss 2.29*
  • Landon Cassill 2.18
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.71*
  • Josh Wise 1.52*
  • JJ Yeley 1.49
  • Brian Scott 1.42
  • JJ Yeley 1.35*
  • Reed Sorenson (-0.88)*
  • Brandan Gaughan (-0.95)
  • Mike Wallace (-2.08)*

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Auto Club Speedway, Auto Club 400

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick, this year’s first repeat winner, on dominating the CampingWorld.com 500 at Phoenix this past weekend. There really wasn’t anyone who could compete with Kevin and he won his fourth straight race at this track and fifth in his last six attempts.

AUTO CLUB 400

The series stays out west this week as they head to the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA. This will be the first time this season that the series visits a two-mile low-banked, D-shaped oval superspeedway. Once again I think we will have a driver win his second race of the season and guarantee himself a spot in the Chase field.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won five races at this track and he is my pick to win once again this weekend. Jimmie has finished in the top five here in twelve of the twenty races he has started and those are very impressive stats. Another impressive stat that Jimmie has at this track is that he has finished every lap of every race he has run here also.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has three wins at this track also and I think he is looking forward to this weekend. Matt is still trying to win his first points race in over a year so he doesn’t have to worry about making the Chase on points instead of by winning a race during the season. This could be the week he breaks the streak and goes back to victory lane.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has a streak of his own going right now. He has finished first or second in his last six points race starts. I think that streak will come to an end this weekend. Kevin has won one race at this track, but he is mostly average here. He would love to win this race in his home state, but that won’t happen this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl has one win at this track, but I think this team is still learning to work together. I’m guessing about the middle of the season you will see this team run better and more consistently. Don’t use up all of his starts early in the season in the Yahoo league. Wait until later and you will score more points.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey also has won a race at this track and this team looks better at this point of the season than they did last year. I don’t think it will be long before you see them in victory lane. Kasey should do well in qualifying as well as the race this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won three times at this track, but hasn’t won since the 2004 season here. I still see him running well this weekend and leading some laps during the race. I think the Hendrick cars will once again have the most power and speed among all of the teams on the circuit and that will propel them to the front of the field.

Kurt Busch: Kurt ran his first race of the season last week at Phoenix and came away with a great finish. This weekend shouldn’t be any different. Kurt has one win here during his career and has finished in the top ten in six of his last eight starts here. He should be able to work his way into the top thirty in points and if he wins a race he will make the Chase.

Clint Bowyer: Clint always runs well at the flatter tracks. After struggling early in the race last weekend at Phoenix. The team made some adjustments late in the race and Clint came to life a little bit. I think they learned a lot during that race and will be able to apply some of what they learned this week. I look for him to come away with a top ten finish this weekend.

Tony Stewart: Tony hasn’t run well yet this year, but they did have a good car last weekend. If Tony doesn’t get caught up in a crash at Phoenix I think he comes away with a top ten finish. This week he should be able to have a decent car right off the trailer and I see him leading laps and finishing in the top ten.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has yet to win a race at this track, but he has finished in the top five in two of his last three starts here. This team has been strong all year and this weekend should be no different. I think they will be fast just like all of the Hendrick cars and they will have a shot at going to victory lane.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Kurt Busch
  • Tony Stewart
  • Clint Bowyer

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Kurt Busch

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Brad Keselowski