Month: October 2014

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Texas, AAA Texas 500

Jimmie Johnson celebrates in victory lane at Texas Motor Speedway

There are only three weeks remaining in the NASCAR season. With Dale Earnhardt Jr’s surprise win at Martinsville, this leaves one more open spot for consistent drivers like Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth for the championship. They may attempt a conservative approach in order to secure their ticket. Other drivers, like Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski, need to take risks to advance to the final rounds. Your lineup should reflect your status in your league: conservative or risky. There are plenty of options this week because we do not see completely dominant drivers. I would suggest choosing your three favorite drivers and fill the final two spots with the best budget options available.

The first pick for my roster is the most consistent driver at Texas. Matt Kenseth has 12 Top-5 finishes in his last 19 starts and has not finished outside the Top 20 in the last ten years. With 79% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 9.4 since 2005, Kenseth is the best in the series in lap-to-lap performance. Matt Kenseth has been solid all this season and he should be a productive choice for your roster.

I am suspicious of my second roster choice because he has burned me multiple times throughout the 2014 season. Kyle Busch has been running more consistently lately with the exception of being caught up in an early wreck at Talladega. With 7 Top-5 finishes in his last 18 Texas races, Kyle Busch has shown upside in Fort Worth. He is third best in the series in lap-to-lap consistency, and I expect a solid finish this week.

Greg Biffle was tempting for my third pick, but I had enough cap room to upgrade to Jeff Gordon. While Biffle has better track data, Gordon is decent in Texas and is a more consistent driver in 2014. He is also the best driver in the championship standings after a second place finish at Martinsville. I am expecting a conservative approach that will appeal to those on top of the standings.

With the top drivers taking up most of my budget, I am left to fill the remaining two spots with budget drivers. David Ragan is often a decent value based on his low salary cap number. He has middle-of-the-road lap-to-lap numbers in Texas. If he finishes in the middle, then he will be a valuable choice. Landon Cassill, with a 17th place average over the last month, is slowly raising his salary cap number. He should still be worth the value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned over the past five Texas races for each driver and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that indicates how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. Greg Biffle is on my yahoo roster, but I left him off of my Fantasy Live roster in favor of Jeff Gordon. As a consolation prize, we will use his Texas numbers to demonstrate our formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT TEXAS

  • Total Laps Led Last Five Texas Races: 91 laps equals 9.1 points per race
  • Fast Laps: Cannot be calculated
  • Average Finish Position: 6th place average equals 38 points per race
  • Start to Finish Differential: Plus 6 equals 6 points per race
  • Total Points Per Race: 53.1
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.00
  • Fantasy Points Per Dollar: 53.1 divided by 23 equals 2.31 points per dollar

See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with highlighted picks in bold. Good luck with your picks for Texas.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 3.55
  • Kyle Busch 2.69
  • Joey Logano 1.89
  • Matt Kenseth 1.78
  • Brad Keselowski 1.60
  • Clint Bowyer 1.57
  • Ryan Newman 1.44
  • Kevin Harvick 1.05
  • Carl Edwards 1.01
  • Jeff Gordon 0.95
  • Dale Earnhardt 0.79

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.53
  • Brian Vickers 2.32
  • Greg Biffle 2.31
  • Kyle Larson 1.80
  • Tony Stewart 1.61
  • Denny Hamlin 1.60
  • Kasey Kahne 1.53
  • Aric Almirola 1.27
  • Paul Menard 1.07
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.04
  • Jamie McMurray 0.94
  • Kurt Busch 0.72
  • Austin Dillon 0.57
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.45

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.38
  • Justin Allgaier 1.18
  • Casey Mears 0.64

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 1.48
  • David Gilliland 1.05
  • David Ragan 0.81
  • Cole Whitt 0.17

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 2.30
  • Michael Annett 1.44
  • Reed Sorenson 1.26
  • Josh Wise 1.14
  • Alex Bowman 0.97
  • Michael McDowell 0.01
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Texas Motor Speedway, AAA Texas 500

The Big Hoss TV at Texas Motor Speedway

The first race of the Eliminator Round is in the books, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. picks up the win. This means that because Dale has already been eliminated from the Chase, at least two drivers will make it to the championship race via points. A couple of the Chase drivers had very poor finishes and now find themselves in a position where they will probably have to win one of the next two races to make it to the championship race.

This week the series heads back to Texas Motor Speedway, the mile and a half track that is very similar to the rest of the intermediate tracks on the circuit. Once again a 500-mile race will take its toll on some engines and tires have been a concern most of the year for various drivers. The drivers who struggle on the short tracks really need to run well this weekend before the final race of this round is run at Phoenix.

AAA TEXAS 500

Jimmie Johnson: I am picking Jimmie to break out of his recent slump and get back to victory lane this week at Texas. Jimmie has won two of the last four races and both of them were during the Chase. Even though Jimmie was eliminated from the Chase, this team is going to fight for another win this season.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has yet to win a race this season and this is one of the tracks that he can get that first win at. Matt has won two races at Texas during his career. He has also finished in the top ten in seventeen of his twenty-four starts here and has the best average finish of any driver at Texas over their careers.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Even though this team has been eliminated from the Chase they are still running hard and running well as we come to the last few races of the season. Dale has run well at all types of tracks this season and I think he will have a fast car once again the weekend in Texas. He won the very first race ever run at this track, but that was a long time ago.

Denny Hamlin: Denny swept the races here back in 2010 and was very disappointed with his finish last week at Martinsville. He felt that he had a car capable of winning last week and that would have given him the free pass into the championship race at Homestead. Now they need to run well over the next two races and they have two tracks they are very capable of winning at.

Joey Logano: This team has been fast all season. Now we will see how they perform under extreme pressure on a track that they should be favored to finish in the top five at. Joey won the spring race here and has finished in the top five in his last three starts at this track. They will be looking for the sweep this weekend and they could very well get it.

Brad Keselowski: After winning the race at Talladega to move to the Eliminator round of the Chase, Brad had mechanical trouble at Martinsville and finds himself once again in a must win situation somewhere during the next two races. This team has been just as fast as their teammate, Joey Logano, every week and they lead the series in wins.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin took the biggest hit of all the Chase drivers at Martinsville when he and Matt Kenseth got tangled up on the track and Kevin had to go to the garage to get his car back on the track and try to salvage as many spots as he could. Now they almost have to win one of the next two races, but the good news is that they have a good chance of winning one of the next two races because they run very well at both of these tracks.

Carl Edwards: Carl didn’t have the best race at Martinsville and has some work to do to get back in contention. However, Carl has won three races at Texas and runs well at Phoenix, so he has a good chance of making it to the championship race. They can ill afford another poor finish though, or they will be in the same position as the other drivers who need to win to have a shot.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff leads the point standings at the moment, by virtue of his second place finish at Martinsville. It’s nice to be in the lead, but Jeff would have rather won the race. Now they need to run well over the next two weeks to move into the championship race. Jeff finished second in the race here in April of this year and has shown that he can get the job done on any track he runs on this season.


Ryan Newman: Ryan had a great run once again at Martinsville, where he picked up a third place finish. Even though they are another team that hasn’t won a race yet this season, they have put themselves in position to move on to the next round if they can come away with two more top five finishes. I think Texas will be their toughest test between the next two races.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Joey Logano
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Martinsville, Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500

martinsville speedway nascar race 2013

The racing gods are on Brad Keselowski’s side this season. On an unpredictable restrictor plate track, Keselowski avoided elimination by winning in Alabama. We are now down to four races and eight drivers until the end of the 2014 season. We are also running out of time in Fantasy Racing and you need to be conservative if you are leading or take risks to catch up to the league leader. We are on a more predictable track in Martinsville and should be a welcome relief to those of us who take the time to analyze the numbers.

With the more predictable nature of Martinsville Speedway, the best strategy is to choose your three favorite drivers. The final two roster spots should be the best value drivers with the remaining salary cap. My first pick was recently eliminated from the championship and has dominating race statistics at the track. Jimmie Johnson had 15 Top Five finishes at Martinsville in his last 19 races. With 93% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 5.6 since 2005, Johnson is expected to run near the top. Short tracks produce more laps to lead, so there is a greater benefit to choose drivers with favorable running positions. Johnson is the best in the series in fast laps and laps led and should be an asset to your team this week.

The second choice in my lineup, Jeff Gordon, rivals his teammate’s success in Virginia. Gordon also has 15 Top Five finishes in his last 19 Martinsville races. Gordon is second to Johnson in lap-to-lap performance, laps led, fast laps, and average finish position since 2005. The biggest difference between the two drivers is that Gordon can still win the championship and has ben a more consistent driver in 2014.

My original third choice for my roster was Denny Hamlin because Hamlin was the third-best driver in all track statistics. After selecting my budget choices on my roster, I had enough cap space to upgrade to Brad Keselowski. Although he has not had dominating numbers at Martinsville, my addition to my roster is due to his success in the 2014 season. Keselowski has proven to be a force even on tracks where he is statistically average. I expect a solid run after he squeaked through to the next round.

These selections allowed little salary cap space for my last two roster spots. My expectations are low but should still maintain value due to the low salary cap number. Michael Annett finished in 31st place earlier this season at Martinsville. Landon Cassill has averaged a 27th place in his last five races. If both drivers duplicate their efforts, they should provide enough value to be worth a roster spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five races at Martinsville. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each driver. Denny Hamlin got bumped from my lineup in favor of Brad Keselowski. As a consolation prize, we will use his Martinsville numbers to further illustrate the formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Laps Led Last Five Martinsville Races: 57 laps equals 5.7 points per race
  • Fast Laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average Finish Position: 16th place = 28 points per race
  • Start to Finish Differential: Negative 14 = -14 points per race
  • Total points per race: 19.70
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.50
  • Fantasy Points Per Dollar: 19.7 divides by 23.50 equals 0.84 points per dollar

Please review the fantasy points per dollar for each driver below with this week’s recommendations highlighted in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.52
  • Jeff Gordon 3.14
  • Matt Kenseth 2.57
  • Clint Bowyer 2.50
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
  • Carl Edwards 1.32
  • Brad Keselowski 1.26
  • Kyle Busch 1.17
  • Kevin Harvick 1.01
  • Joey Logano 0.82

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.23
  • Greg Biffle 2.08
  • Aric Almirola 1.94
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.61
  • Kurt Busch 1.23
  • Brian Vickers 1.20
  • Paul Menard 1.16
  • Tony Stewart 1.06
  • Kasey Kahne 0.94
  • Jamie McMurray 0.85
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.85
  • Denny Hamlin 0.84
  • Ryan Newman 0.71
  • Kyle Larson 0.13

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.35
  • Danica Patrick 1.91
  • Justin Allgaier 1.53
  • Casey Mears 1.43
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 1.92
  • Cole Whitt 1.09
  • David Ragan 0.30

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 2.55
  • Michael Annett 2.44
  • Josh Wise 0.87
  • Reed Sorenson 0.38
  • Alex Bowman (-1.09)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Martinsville Speedway, Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500

Jeff Gordon celebrates in victory lane at Martinsville Speedway

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Contender round is in the books and the start of the Eliminator round starts next Sunday. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Busch were all knocked out of the Chase. There are eight drivers left with a chance to win this year’s Sprint Cup championship and after the next three races we will be down to four drivers and one race to determine this season’s champion.

GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

The first race of the Eliminator round will be held at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville, at .526-miles in length, is the shortest track in the NASCAR series. With only 12 degrees of banking in the corners, it is also one of the flattest tracks on the circuit. It is shaped like a paperclip and has asphalt for straightaways and concrete through the turns. Trust me, there is going to be a lot of bumping and banging once again this week as eight drivers try to advance to the next round and thirty-five other drivers just try to get a win.

Jeff Gordon: I am picking Jeff to win this race and advance to the NASCAR Sprint Cup title race. Jeff only made it into this round by three points and he doesn’t want to come that close to being eliminated again. Jeff has won eight races during his career at Martinsville including this race last year. I think he will repeat that feat and propel himself to the final round.

Jimmie Johnson: Even though Jimmie has been eliminated from the Chase, this team is still going to do everything they can to win more races. Jimmie also has eight wins at this track and will give Jeff a run for his money in this race. I just don’t know what happens if the race is between Jeff and Jimmie at the end. Does Jimmie give Jeff the win so Hendrick Motorsports has a guaranteed qualifier for the championship, or does he do everything in his power to win the race?

Denny Hamlin: Denny is still in the Chase and he is another driver who has always been very good at this track also. Denny has four wins at this track, although he hasn’t won a race here since 2010. I think if Denny is going to win a Chase race it is either going to be here or at Phoenix during this stretch. Still, he has finished in the top five in over half of the races he has run here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has never won a race at Martinsville during his career, but he has finished in the top ten there in over half of his starts. This team is disappointed they didn’t advance in the Chase and needs to continue to improve and try and pick up wins as they look towards next season. They need to become more consistent and that is something they can work on now.

Tony Stewart: Tony has struggled for much of this season, but he still has a driver in the Chase in Kevin Harvick. Tony has three wins at Martinsville and has finished in the top ten in half of his starts at this track. He will be an invaluable asset to Kevin this week, because he can give him advice on how to get around this track. Look for him to be a factor in this race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has one win at Martinsville and has run very well there lately. He has five top ten finishes in his last eight starts there including the win back in the spring of 2011. This team has been fast every week and has looked good during the Chase. I think they will be one of the teams to move on to the final round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has yet to win a race here in his career, but he has only run here nine times. During those nine races he has finished in the top ten five times with his best finish being fourth. He had to win the race at Talladega last week to advance and once again he fought through adversity, in the form of an early race accident, and came away with the win he needed. Never count this team out.

Joey Logano: Joey, like Brad has won two races during the Chase and will be looking for another one this weekend. Martinsville hasn’t been one of his better tracks, as he has only three top ten finishes in eleven starts here. However he did finish fourth in the spring race and this team has also been fast most every week of the season.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has some trouble last week at Talladega, but this team has been running very well over the past couple of months. Jamie has only one top five finish here in twenty-three starts, but he has finished in the top ten in twelve of those starts. He might not win here, but he does know how to drive on this track.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Tony Stewart
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Talladega Superspeedway, GEICO 500

Rusty Wallace 1993 Talladega crash

Talladega is one of the most exciting races of the season, and the championship implications will only make the race more competitive. Restrictor plate tracks balance the field to the extent that there is little advantage from one team to the next. The results are unpredictable. As a result, your fantasy racing strategy for this week will be different than most. Dispensing Fantasy Racing advice is difficult as my guess is just as likely to fail as it is to succeed. That being said, some drivers have a better Talladega history than others. Below are my pre-qualifying Fantasy Live picks. My strategy is to start with this team and switch the picks with drivers who qualify near the back of the field. The points gained from start-to-finish differential should outweigh the fluky laps led number.

The driver with the most Fantasy Live points over the last five Talladega races is the first pick for my roster. Matt Kenseth has hopefully cooled off from his post-Charlotte riff with Brad Keselowski. Since 2005, Kenseth has a series-best average running position of 13.9 and runs 65% of his laps in the Top 15. Kenseth has 12 Top Twenty finishes in his last 19 Talladega races. He also led the most laps of any driver during this time span.

The second pick for my roster scared me earlier in the year at this race. He stayed in the back of the field to avoid the big wreck and is a risky strategy. With his championship situation, he may need to be more aggressive. Dale Earnhardt Jr. usually drives well at restrictor plate tracks. With an average running position of 14.7 and 60% of his laps in the Top 15, Junior has a chance to finish near the top. He is also third in laps led since 2005.

The third choice for my roster is Brian Vickers. Vickers has 5 Top Five finishes in his last 13 Talladega races. Vickers has a 17th place average finish position and spends 57% of his laps in the Top 15. David Ragan is a great bargain as he drivers much better than his salary cap figure. Ragan has 7 Top Ten finishes in his last 15 starts and holds a 15th place average finish position since 2005. He won this race last spring and has upside. He was running well earlier this year before being involved in a wreck.

There are plenty of options as any driver in the field has a legitimate shot at a Top 15 finish. My fifth roster spot goes to David Gilliland. Gilliland is not as dominant here as his teammate David Ragan, but he understands how to drive at restrictor plate tracks. Once again, my picks will be influenced by the qualifying order, and the weekly picks can change.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply determines the average number of points each driver earned over the last five Talladega races and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect form each of your fantasy dollars. I almost picked Jeff Gordon over Dale Earnhardt Jr. simply due to his consistency in 2014. As a consolation prize, we will use his Talladega numbers to illustrate the points per dollar salary cap formula.

JEFF GORDON AT TALLADEGA

  • Total laps led last five Talladega races: 12 equals 1.2 fantasy points per race
  • Average finish position: 19th place equals 25 fantasy points per race
  • Fast Laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative Ten equals (-10) fantasy points per race
  • Average points per race: 16.20
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 16.20 divides by $27.75 equals 0.58 points per dollar

See each driver’s fantasy points per dollar over the last five Talladega race with this week’s picks in bold. Check the comments after qualifying for some additional advice.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 2.15
  • Kyle Busch 1.60
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.55
  • Clint Bowyer 1.51
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.14
  • Brad Keselowski 1.13
  • Kevin Harvick 1.07
  • Jeff Gordon 0.58
  • Ryan Newman 0.48
  • Carl Edwards 0.28

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Brian Vickers 2.43
  • Kyle Larson 2.37
  • Greg Biffle 1.82
  • Jamie McMurray 1.46
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.42
  • Paul Menard 1.37
  • Aric Almirola 1.19
  • Kasey Kahne 0.95
  • Denny Hamlin 0.95
  • Kurt Busch 0.66
  • Austin Dillon 0.65
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.55
  • Joey Logano 0.19
  • Tony Stewart (-0.01)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.57
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.49
  • Casey Mears 1.05
  • Justin Allgaier 0.53
  • Danica Patrick 0.22

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 4.87
  • David Gilliland 3.53
  • Michael Waltrip 1.68
  • Cole Whitt 1.67
  • Trevor Bayne 0.21

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 5.23
  • JJ Yeley 4.15
  • Landon Cassill 4.00
  • Michael Annett 3.22
  • Michael McDowell 2.53
  • Terry Labonte 2.50
  • Alex Bowman 2.24
  • Josh Wise 1.33
  • Reed Sorenson (-0.25)