Month: May 2014

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth checkered flag kansas

Congratulations goes out to Denny Hamlin who picked up his first victory of the season by avoiding the big wreck that always seems to happen in the restrictor plate races. Denny ended up in the right lane late in the race and got excellent drafting help in passing Kevin Harvick after a late race restart and he held onto the lead as the caution came out on the last lap for debris on the track. That should be enough to propel him into the Chase.

This week the series heads to Kansas City, KS for the running of the 5-Hour Energy 400. Kansas Speedway is another of the mile and a half tracks on the circuit that make up the majority of schedule. I just hope that there aren’t a lot of tire issues again this weekend.

5-HOUR ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth: I am picking Matt to get his first win of the season this week at Kansas. Matt has won two of the last three races at Kansas and has finished no worse than eleventh in his last seven starts there. They would like nothing better than to get their first win of the season and get the monkey off their backs and gain a spot in the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has finished in the top ten in ten straight races at Kansas including two victories during that stretch. This is another team that is still looking for their first win of the season so they can lock up a spot in the Chase themselves. I think this could be an all out battle between two of last seasons best drivers with a spot in the Chase up for grabs.

Greg Biffle: Greg came close to getting his first win of the season last Sunday at Talladega and he has always been very good at Kansas. He has won twice here and has finished in the top five in seven of his fifteen starts. This is the type of track that Greg excels on and this weekend should be no different.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won the first two races ever run at Kansas Speedway. Even though he hasn’t won here since then he has finished in the top five in nine of his sixteen starts at this track. Jeff currently sits in the top spot in the standings, but he would really like to get his first victory of the season and get his spot in the Chase. There are only sixteen races left until the Chase starts and a lot of drivers who are looking for their first win yet.

Carl Edwards: Carl has already won a race this season, but he would like to get his second win before the Chase starts too. Although he has never won a race here he has finished in the top ten in nine of his thirteen starts at this track. I think that the Roush/Fenway engines are some of the best out there this season and can help these drivers get to victory lane.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the race here last fall and has looked very good every week this season. As I have said before, if it weren’t for a lot of mechanical failures early this season, Kevin would probably have more than two wins and be sitting on top of the standings right now. He also has seven top ten finishes in his sixteen starts at this track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has never won at Kansas yet, but he has finished in the top ten in seven of his fifteen career starts here. This team has slipped a little bit lately, but this is the type of track where they can get back into victory lane and get back on track like they were at the beginning of the season. Dale has been very good all year at this type of track.

Brad Keselowski: Brad took the blame for a wreck last weekend at Talladega that took out many of the big name drivers. This weekend he will try to redeem himself and should be able to do just that. Both of the Penske teams have been very fast in qualifying all season long and I look for them to continue qualifying well this week also.

Joey Logano: Joey is the other Penske driver that has started towards the front of the field all season long. He also has two wins to go along with his good starting positions and could very easily get his third win of the season this weekend at Kansas Speedway.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Greg Biffle
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Talladega Superspeedway, Aaron’s 499

NASCAR 2013 Talladega Crash Greg Biffle and Kyle Busch

Sunday’s race in Talladega will be hard-pressed to top a Richmond track that had a fantastic finish accompanied by hot tempers and one black eye!

Last week’s picks for Richmond yielded 199 points (1.99 points per fantasy dollar). The final standings were decent; however, my choices did not lead enough laps to win the league. This week’s most valuable driver is Reed Sorensen, even though his data is only from one race (5.33 points per dollar). He passed thirty cars for an 11th place finish in his only spring race at the track. Drivers with five races at the track with the most value were David Gilliland and David Ragan. Both drivers had consistent success at the track.

From the perspective of Fantasy Nascar advice, the Alabama track is nearly impossible to predict. Drivers quickly move to the front and back of the field. All we can do is make the best picks that we can hoping the crashes miss our choices, and they find the right line when the race comes to a close.

With the new playoff format, this will be a highly competitive race that offers a potential playoff spot to teams that usually do not run at the top of the field.

TALLADEGA IS UNPREDICTABLE, BUT…

Even with the unpredictable nature of restrictor plate tracks, some drivers have better performances at Talladega than others.

The most consistent driver over the last ten years is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Over the last ten spring races, Dale has an average finish of eleventh. Matt Kenseth is also a solid option and has led the most laps over the last five years.

Other drivers with recent success at the track include Kurt Busch, Dave Ragan, and Clint Bowyer.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Nascar.com uses a salary cap format, which limits you from selecting all of the top drivers.

Using a combination of final race standing, fast laps, laps led, and differential from start to finish, this format forces uses to find the diamonds in the rough each week. In order to discover the value drivers, this article looks at the total points accumulated by each driver over their last five spring races at Talladega.

The only data point that will not be included is the fast laps because I cannot promise 100% accuracy of the data.

Basically, the formula that is used is simply dividing the average points accumulated per week for each driver divided by their salary cap number listed on www.nascar.com. The end result is the total number of points earned per salary cap dollar.

This data below from Matt Kenseth’s last five spring Talladega races should help.

MATT KENSETH AT TALLADEGA

  • Matt Kenseth Total number of laps led last five years: 234 (46.8 per race average)
  • Matt Kenseth Average lap points on nascar.com format (1 point/2 laps led): 23.4 per race
  • Matt Kenseth Average point differential: (-7)
  • Matt Kenseth Average finish: 18th (26 fantasy points)
  • Current Matt Kenseth salary on www.nascar.com: 28.25
  • Matt Kenseth’s Fantasy NASCAR Live points per dollar: 42.4/28.25 = 1.5 points per fantasy dollar

POINTS PER FANTASY DOLLAR FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

In order to incorporate the rookies with no history at Talladega, my formula is using their results for the 2014 season instead of the track data. Another suggestion for success this week is to select drivers who qualify at the back of the field. Their potential to move up the field is very high with restrictor plates and well worth the risk for reliable drivers.

Best Value Picks

  • Reed Sorensen 5.33 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • JJ Yeley 3.71
  • David Ragan 3.43
  • David Gilliland 3.31
  • Michael McDowell 2.67
  • Terry Labonte 2.27
  • Michael Waltrip 2.05

Notable Rookies

  • Michael Annett 3.2 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Justin Allgaier 3.13
  • Alex Bowman 2.81
  • Cole Whitt 2.81
  • Austin Dillon 2.67
  • Kyle Larson 2.57
  • Brian Scott 2.4

Notable Drivers

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.88 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Kurt Busch 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.5
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.5
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Clint Bowyer 1.34
  • Tony Stewart 1.15
  • Brad Keselowski 1.12
  • Kyle Bush 1.11
  • Denny Hamlin 1.05
  • Carl Edwards 0.98
  • Kevin Harvick 0.87
  • Joey Logano 0.86
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.78
  • Jeff Gordon 0.32

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Based on my formula for salary cap drivers here is my line-up for this week’s race at Talladega. My total salary cap used is $100.00

  1. Kurt Busch $27.25
  2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. $27.25
  3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $21.25
  4. David Gilliland $13.00
  5. David Ragan $11.25