Author: Jeff Gutowski

Once again I have to write this before the second race as I will be out of internet range again early next week. I want to apologize to those of you who submit questions to me while I am away that I can’t answer for you. Hopefully I can make it home early enough next week to help you all out. I should be available off and on again for the rest of the season to try and hand out any advice you might need during the week, but I know there will be some weekends where I am not going to be able to help again in early October.

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400

For the last race of the first stage of the playoffs the series heads to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course for the running of the Bank of America Roval 400. The Roval is a road course that has never been used in a NASCAR race until this weekend. There was testing done by the drivers, so they at least have seen the course and been able to make some laps on it. The thing is no one knows what to expect under race conditions. This is going to be a 109-lap race on a 2.28 mile track which comes out to about 400 kilometers.

I think the thing to do here is go with those who have always performed well on the road course tracks and probably lean towards those who have more patience as they will learn as they go and the only way to learn is to make sure you stay on the track and keep your car in one piece.

Kyle Busch: I am going to contradict myself a little bit here and say Kyle wins the race this weekend. He might not have the most patience of the drivers, but he is by far the most consistent driver when it comes to racing on the road courses. With four wins, ten top five and eighteen top ten finishes in his twenty-eight starts he has shown that he can get the job done on both of the tracks that he has run on in the Monster Energy Cup Series.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has won two of the last six road course races and could have possible won a couple more of them. This includes both of his wins and a runner-up finish in his last three road course starts. Martin is also one of the more patient drivers on the track and has a great crew chief that knows how to settle him down if he does get excited. I think he could come away with another top five finish here this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny only has one win at this type of track and that came in the last three years as he was on a four race streak of finishing in the top five at the road course tracks. This team is hit and miss this season, but I still think they can come away with a win yet this year. It might not be a sure thing this weekend, but I think he could be another top five driver.

AJ Allmendinger: AJ knows how to drive on these tracks, but his finishing position doesn’t always show that. I think that if he can stay patient and keep his car on the track he will have a shot here this week. There could be a lot of drivers who are pushing too hard on a track they know nothing about that are going to get in big trouble and take themselves out of the race which means there won’t be quite so much competition.

Kurt Busch: Another driver that needs to have some patience early and he could be a contender at the end. Kurt has not finished worse than twelfth in his last twelve road course starts. Those are phenomenal numbers when you consider any little mistake can cost you any number of positions and the wear and tear on a car as it hops around all over the track. He is another driver you will want on your team this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has three top five finishes in his four starts at this type of track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing last season. Clint likes to beat and bang with the rest of the drivers on these tracks and usually comes out not too much worse for wear. He seems to know how to position his car and where the best places to pass on these tracks are and takes advantage of that knowledge.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has finished in the top ten in seven of his last nine road course starts including a win and a runner-up finish in his last two Sonoma starts. Seeing I haven’t seen a race at this track, I don’t know if it conforms closer to Sonoma or Watkins Glen, but I have a sneaking suspicion that it is going to be its own unique configuration. Yet, as good as he has been all season, I think he will fair well here this weekend too.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is still looking for his first career win at a road course, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t run well at these tracks. He is also another one of those drivers who will trade paint all during the race, get beat, and then say something to the effect of how much fun he had and praise the other drivers who finished better than him. That is the right attitude to have when you are going into the unknown.

Chase Elliott: Let’s not forget that Chase won his first ever Cup race at Watkins Glen earlier this year. He has only run six road course races in this series and came away with three top ten finishes in his last four starts including that win. It seems he really likes to run on this type of track and learns a little more every time he goes out there. Now that he has one win, others could easily follow on the road courses.

Joey Logano: Joey is another of those drivers who always seems to have a pretty good car at these tracks and then runs into some type of problem that takes him out of contention. He is someone you might want to take a chance on this weekend because he does know how to get around these tracks and he has the same amount of experience as the rest of the field at this track.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY ROVAL

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Martin Truex Jr.

Driver Group Game Group B

• Clint Bowyer
• Kurt Busch
• AJ Allmendinger
• Ryan Newman

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell
• David Ragan

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY ROVAL

1. Kyle Busch
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kurt Busch
5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Kurt Busch

The playoff field has been set after a rain delayed finally of the regular season on Monday. NASCAR didn’t need this to happen as they are losing fans at an alarming rate and to have one of the biggest races of the season get postponed by rain was a disaster. Most people attending race weekends have an itinerary that sends them home after the race on Sunday or early Monday morning. A lot of fans have to be back to work on Monday or Tuesday and can’t attend a race that has been postponed. This could have a huge affect with people buying tickets to the final race of the regular season next year.

SOUTH POINT 400

Kyle Busch won the regular season championship and he and Kevin Harvick will enter the playoffs in a virtual tie with the same amount of playoff points which is fifty for each. Martin Truex Jr. will start fifteen points behind those two drivers and Brad Keselowski is seeded fourth already thirty-one points behind the leaders. Points are reset after each three race stage for those advancing, so you can see the advantage the top two drivers have in their quest to make the championship race in Miami at the end of the year.

So, the playoff start at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the running of the South Point 400. This is the first of many intermediate tracks on the circuit that have all been won by drivers in a Ford or a Toyota this season. I see this trend continuing through the playoffs unless someone in a Chevrolet wins on fuel mileage or some great pit strategy that plays out well for them. Drives who are in a Chevy that I think have a chance of winning on one of these tracks are Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win the first race of the playoffs and get himself qualified for the second round right away and gain at least another five playoff points going forward. He has won two of the last four races here while leading over 350-laps in those two wins. This team has been fast every week with no exceptions. The only thing that can stop them this week if trouble on pit road which has plagued them quite a bit this season.

Kyle Busch: Not to be outdone by too much, Kyle has three top five finishes in his last five starts here including a runner-up finish this spring. He considers this his hometown track and hasn’t won here since the 2009 season. Kyle knows how important it is to gain more playoff points to get him through every round as he sets his sights on Miami in November.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin won the race at Las Vegas last year and has three top five finishes in his last four starts here. This is where Martin made his bread and butter when he won the championship last season. He has quite a few playoff points which should help him get through the first round, but after that one bad race could cost him. I look for him to contend here once again this week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is on a roll with back to back wins in the two races leading up to the playoffs. He has finished in the top seven in his last six starts at Las Vegas including two wins in that stretch. It means a lot to know you have the speed and handling to win races at this point of the season, so this team will come into the playoffs with a lot of confidence. I look for them to run towards the front of the field again this week.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan has had a fast car for most of the year and sat on the pole for the spring race here and finished fifth. He has only run four races here and has finished in the top seven in his last three. Ryan could be one of the surprises of the playoffs because he has been so close to winning races all year and if those wins start coming now he will have a shot to win the championship this year.

Joey Logano: The third Penske driver to be mentioned by me, Joey has five straight top ten finishes here with three of those starts coming on the front row. In ten starts at this track Joey has never finished worse than twenty-third and has only failed to complete one lap in those ten races. Anyone who can stay on the lead lap in nine out of ten races anywhere and only lose one lap has to be on your radar.

Erik Jones: Erik has really come on in the second half of the season after winning at Daytona in July. This is his type of track and in his two starts at Las Vegas he has come away with a fifteenth and an eighth place finish. I think he improves on those numbers this week and will finish somewhere in the top ten again and could possibly come away with another top five finish. He is another driver who could be a surprise during the next ten races.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has finished in the top three in his last two starts at this track. Everyone thought he would run up high all year long and he has surprised us by running down low more often than not. I think learning to do that earlier this season can only help him in the playoffs when he will need to search around the track to find speed to keep himself in the mix throughout the races.

Aric Almirola: He has come close a number of times only to have something unfortunate happen to him late in races. Yet, he has shown that he has the same speed as the rest of the Stewart-Haas drivers and the intermediate tracks are where he is usually at his best. He has only finished in the top ten here once in ten starts, but that finish came this spring. I am throwing out those stats and picking him as my dark horse this week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie hasn’t shown us much of anything this season. He hasn’t won a race or even a stage as we enter the playoffs and that puts his at a major disadvantage. Can he and Chad Knaus find that magic once again and can they find enough to get them to Miami? Doubtful in my opinion. However, he has only finished outside of the top sixteen once in his last nine starts here. He has led laps in six of his last seven starts here and won three straight at this track from 2005-2007. He needs to have a great finish right off the bat if he has any inkling of making noise this year.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Brad Keselowski

Driver Group Game Group B

• Ryan Blaney
• Erik Jones
• Aric Almirola
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• Alex Bowman
• Chris Buescher

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Kyle Busch
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Ryan Blaney

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Ryan Blaney

After Kurt Busch broke into the winners circle for the first time this season the series took a week off and now they are back with two races to go before the start of the playoffs. During these two races we will answer some questions. Will someone not in the top sixteen in points win one of these races? Will the Big Three continue to dominate? Will someone not currently in the top sixteen make their way into the playoffs by gaining enough points to move into that top sixteen in these final two races. Stay tuned!

BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

This week the race will be held at the Darlington Raceway also known as “The Lady in Black” and “The Track Too Tough to Tame”. The track has a unique configuration compared to other tracks on the circuit in that it is shaped more like an egg than an oval. This is the reason for the famed “Darlington Stripe” that occurs when a driver comes off the corner and the wall is closer than he thinks. This is the reason I heard Darrell Waltrip on say when talking about the Lady in Black something like she ain’t no lady.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win his eighth race of the season and pick up some more valuable playoff points. He has sat on the pole the last two years here and has one win, four top five and five top ten finishes here in his last five races. He has also led almost five-hundred laps here in the four races he has run while at Stewart-Haas and we have seen how good those teams are this year with 10 victories among those drivers.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin won this race two years ago and has finished in the top ten here in his last three starts. After getting wrecked while in second place at Bristol, this team will be chomping at the bit to get back on the track and try to get into victory lane for the fifth time this season. I figure he will finish somewhere in the top five once again this weekend and have a shot at winning late in the race.

Denny Hamlin: I keep thinking Denny is going to come out and dominate a race, but he fails to do that. He sat on the pole in two of the last three races, but was never really a contender in either of those races. He won this race last season and has finished in the top six in seven of his last eight starts here. The stats say I should be picking Denny to win this weekend, but something is still a bit off with this team.

Matt Kenseth: I had Trevor Bayne on my roster at Bristol and I had a reader tell me there is no reason at all to do that and then he finished eleventh. Not bad for someone I had no reason what so ever to even have him on my roster. By the way, I did start him too :). So, I am going to go out on a limb and hope lightning strikes twice this week. Granted, the Roush teams haven’t shown the speed they need on this type of track, but Matt has one win and has finished in the top six in five of his last six starts here. Good enough reason for me to have him on my roster.

Erik Jones: Erik has been very hot since winning at Daytona in July. In his only start at Darlington he finished fifth. I think he runs well here once again this week and if everything falls into place for him he could find himself in contention late in the race. I don’t know if he has enough experience to beat Harvick, but it seems that the young guns are pretty calm when they are under pressure.

Kyle Larson: Kyle is another driver I thought would have a win by this point of the season when he was in contention for wins early this season, but this team has floundered a bit since then. I don’t know for sure, but maybe his focus isn’t where it really needs to be. He missed driver introductions at Kentucky because he was talking with some friends and that is a rookie mistake. Now, he has 169-laps in his last two starts at Darlington and has three top ten finished in his four races there. I think he will be fine once again this weekend and will be focused after a week off.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is one of those drivers I might have on my roster, but I am hesitant to start him because he doesn’t seem to be very good in practice and then he slowly gets his car better during the race and comes away with a good finish. This is one of those weeks where he will be on my roster. He has seven top ten finishes in his last nine starts here and has only failed to finish one lap in all of those races combined. Maybe it’s the engineer in him that figures out this egg shaped track that helps them make the right changes to the car.

Kyle Busch: Let’s not forget about Kyle, who wrecked on the second lap at Bristol and came back after repairs with a very damaged car and still had one of the fastest cars on the track. Kyle has always been very good at Darlington. He has finished in the top eleven in nine of his last ten starts and led laps in nine of those starts too. He might complain that his car is junk and be mad at other drivers, but one thing for sure is that no matter what adversity he sees during a race he is going to give you everything he has.

Jimmie Johnson: Right now it doesn’t look like this team will really contend for a title this year. Jimmie has been more down than up from week to week this season and it is hard to have him on your roster any week. He has run better on the shorter tracks, but it doesn’t seem like he has the speed to compete on the intermediate tracks. Well, he leads all active drivers with three wins here, but then again he hasn’t finished in the top ten in his last three races at this track. I have to go on the safe side and say Jimmie is going to be so so once again this week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is another driver I thought would have at least one win by now. They can be running up front early in a race and then it seems like they know they can’t beat the big three unless they make some drastic changes to the car and then they fall back. I guess that’s not a bad strategy when you are in the top sixteen in points and will make the playoffs anyway. Playoff points are much more important and you get those by winning stages and races, not by finishing second. Brad has led over 250-laps in his last four starts here.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DARLINGTON RACEWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Denny Hamlin

Driver Group Game Group B

• Erik Jones
• Ryan Newman
• Matt Kenseth
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• Chris Buescher
• William Byron

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DARLINGTON RACEWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Dwnny Hamlin
3. Kyle Busch
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Kyle Larson

Dark Horse: Austin Dillon

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer

Big 18: Ryan Newman