NASCAR pulled a switch this year and the Labor Day race has moved to Darlington, South Carolina. Darlington Raceway is an historic track that is difficult for drivers to negotiate. As an Atlanta resident, I am slightly disappointed that our holiday race has moved to April. However, this week’s race will be fun to watch as drivers get frustrated at the conditions during the race.
For NASCAR Fantasy Live purposes, this is a good week to front-load your lineups. If you are far behind in the standings, you can pick drivers who are not Chase eligible like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne. They will be forced to take the risks you need to get back into the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, you can go with a conservative approach to your lineup and pick winless drivers who are currently set to go to the Chase like Jeff Gordon and Paul Menard as they will be attempting to avoid big mistakes this week.
As a regular to my lineup this season, Kevin Harvick has helped my team towards the top of the standings. He won last April’s race in Darlington, leading 238 laps on his way to the winner’s circle. We hope that he repeats his efforts from last year’s race. Over the last 5 races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 9th place average. He has the top team so far this season, logging 15 top-5 finishes through 22 races. Harvick has the most laps led of any driver this year by a wide margin, and there is no sign of regression. Keep Harvick in your lineup as long as he keeps up his level of production.
Denny Hamlin finished in the middle of the pack in last year’s race, but that is a rare circumstance. Since 2005, Hamlin has earned seven top-10 finishes in nine races. Recently, Hamlin has a 6th average and is running 99% of his laps inside the top-15 over the last five Darlington races. With only nine top-10 finishes in 2015 through 22 races, Hamlin has not been one of the elite drivers in the Series. In Hamlin’s case, I am valuing track history over seasonal statistics.
For the third spot in my lineup, I am recommending a driver that I had completely written off at one point of the season. Kyle Busch has recovered from a broken leg to win four races in 2015 and establish himself as a Chase contender. Kyle Busch has found success in South Carolina. Over the last five races at Darlington, Kyle Busch has earned four top-10 finishes and a 9th place average finish position. His 416 laps led over this stretch is the most in the Series. I expect Kyle Busch to be one of the front-runners for this week.
With a large chunk of my budget allocated to the top-three spots, I will need to choose the best budget options for my final two recommendations. Although I do not trust him on a tricky track like Darlington, Chase Elliot is in the lineup for his final installment before he joins the series full-time next season. In his previous four races this season, Elliot has averaged a 22nd place finish. As far as budget options, you will be hard-pressed to find one with more upside. For the fifth spot, I will go with my usual budget recommendation in Michael Annett. Annett only has a 32nd place average finish position and finished in 42nd place at Darlington last year. I may keep an eye on qualifying and switch him out if another budget driver looks more tempting. Alex Bowman and Matt DiBenedetto stand out as possible replacements.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. For our formula, we first calculate the total number of points earned by each driver over the last five Darlington races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Greg Biffle is a healthy option for a team that wants to go for broke in the standings. He has the most laps led since 2005 at Darlington. We will use his numbers to illustrate the points per dollar formula.
GREG BIFFLE AT DARLINGTON
- Average finish position last five Darlington races: 12th place average equals 32 points per race
- Start-to-Finish Differential: Plus 1.6 equals 1.6 points per race
- Laps led: 79 equals 7.9 points per race
- Fast laps: 45 equals 4.5 points per race
- Total Fantasy Live points per race: 46
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $19.25
- Fantasy Live points per dollar. 46 divided by 19.25 equals 2.39 points per dollar
Below you will find the points per dollar for all drivers entered at Darlington this week. We will use the 2015 numbers for any rookie driver with no track data. Good luck as we make the push towards the Fantasy NASCAR playoffs.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Kyle Busch 3.70
- Kevin Harvick 2.89
- Denny Hamlin 2.41
- Jimmie Johnson 2.25
- Matt Kenseth 2.03
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.77
- Kurt Busch 1.17
- Brad Keselowski 1.07
- Joey Logano 0.51
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Carl Edwards 2.57
- Jeff Gordon 2.35
- Kyle Larson 2.13
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.72
- Jamie McMurray 1.47
- Ryan Newman 1.41
- Clint Bowyer 1.33
- Paul Menard 0.44
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Tony Stewart 3.03
- Austin Dillon 2.87
- Greg Biffle 2.39
- David Ragan 1.82
- Aric Almirola 0.72
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Danica Patrick 2.45
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.39
- Justin Allgaier 2.35
- Chase Elliott 2.00 *
- Casey Mears 1.69
- Cole Whitt 0.74
- Sam Hornish Jr. 0.61
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Travis Kvapil 4.76
- Timmy Hill 3.90
- Alex Bowman 2.58
- Matt DiBenedetto 2.35 *
- Brett Moffitt 2.32 *
- Landon Cassill 2.13
- Jeb Burton 2.00 *
- David Gilliland 1.96
- Reed Sorenson 1.69
- Josh Wise 1.39
- JJ Yeley 0.90
- Mike Bliss (-0.73)
- Michael Annett (-1.67)
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.