Fantasy NASCAR

2021 Sonoma Raceway, Toyota / Save Mart 350

The Coca-Cola 600 is in the books and the series heads out west to the Sonoma Raceway for the first time in two years for the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350. This race was cancelled last year due to the pandemic. So the questions are has the track changed? If so, how much and will the teams notes from past years make a difference?


This is another of the many road course races on the schedule this year. After this race the teams will head to Texas for the All-Star race before getting back to finding out who can qualify for the playoffs as the season winds down. After this race there will only be ten more races left before those playoffs start and those without a win will be pushing hard to get it so they don’t have to worry about making it in on points.

Chase Elliott: Chase has been the driver to beat lately on all of the road courses. He is still looking for his first win at Sonoma although he has only run four races here. He did lead a few laps in his last race here before losing an engine. His best finish is a fourth place finish which came two race ago at this track. Even without him having a win here yet it’s hard not to have him on your roster.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has won the last two races at Sonoma. With that being said and with how well he had been running on the intermediate tracks until last weekend, I don’t think I want to use him up here. Hard to do with his latest accomplishments here, but the way Chase has run on these tracks I think I can take that chance. He will probably still finish in the top five here and might even win.

Kyle Busch: Kyle came up just short the last time the series was here finishing second to Martin. He hasn’t finished worse than seventh in his last five starts at this track and has two career wins. The only other issue is that Kyle doesn’t usually finish in the top ten in the stages. In fact, he has only finished in the top ten in a stage once here. That means he might not be consistent enough to consider using him this week either.

Kevin Harvick: Not the first person you think of when you are looking for starters for a road course race, but this is one of those tracks where Kevin runs better than the rest of them. He hasn’t finished worse than sixth in his last five starts and that includes a win a few years ago. This team has struggled most of the season and if you have a bunch of starts with him left you might consider using him this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny is someone you might think of when setting your lineup at a road course, but he has yet to win at this track. He has run much better and more consistent in his last four races here than he had previous to that. In his last four he has three top five and four top ten finishes. In the six races he ran before that streak he only cracked the top twenty once.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has been very consistent throughout his career at this track. He has one win and hasn’t finished outside the top fifteen in his last nine starts at this track. He is someone we will strongly consider having in out B list lineup this week. He might not be running as well as he did the last couple of seasons, but this is a different type of track and I think his consistency here will show through.

Kyle Larson: Last week’s winner has never run really well here in his six starts. That’s not to say that he hasn’t been one of the fastest cars here. In fact, he sat on the pole for his last three starts and in the top five in each of his six starts at Sonoma. The issue seems to be not making mistakes during the race. I don’t know if it’s bad timing on pit stops or what, but this team doesn’t seem to come away with the results they are expecting here. That could all change now that he’s with Hendrick and I think he might be the drivers to beat. Even better than Chase, but do we want to use him here when he’s been so dominant most everywhere else?

William Byron: William has only run two races at Sonoma which doesn’t give us much to look at. In those two races his best finish was nineteenth which he accomplished in his last race. What that doesn’t tell us is that he won the first stage and finished third in the second stage of that race before falling back in the final stage. He also lead twenty-one laps in that race which is also a good sign. Worth taking a chance on this weekend.

Ryan Newman: Another driver who has never won at this track but might be worth taking a chance on this week. In his only race here with Roush/Fenway Racing Ryan finished seventh. Throughout his career which spans eighteen races at this track he has only finished outside the top twenty twice. He might not have what it takes to win this race, but he should give you a chance at a solid finish while saving some starts for other drivers.

Erik Jones: Another driver I think is worth taking at shot with this week. Erik has run consistently well on the road courses in his short career. He has back to back to ten finishes at this track and has finished fourteenth and sixteenth in his two road course races this year. I think this team should have what it takes to come away with a top ten finish this week if they can keep from making huge mistakes on the track.


Driver Group Game Group A

  • Chase Elliott

Driver Group Game Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Erik Jones

Driver Group Game Group C

  • Chase Briscoe


  1. Chase Elliott
  2. Kyle Larson
  3. Martin Truex Jr.
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Kevin Harvick

Dark Horse: Erik Jones

Stay Away From: Bubba Wallace

Big 18: Chase Elliott

27 replies on “2021 Sonoma Raceway, Toyota / Save Mart 350”

You were spot on with every prediction except; Byron…I took a hit today but I still have a lot of stud drivers left…I appreciate your knowledge and interaction! It was just a bad day from Byron.

Prior to this year, the 43 car has not finished in the top 20 at a road course since Almirola’s next to last season with Petty in 2016 and only 3 times in the last 20 road course races. They’ve consistently been mid 20s finishes. The two finishes this year in the teens represents a +10 for the team. I understand Bubba ran most of those races and he’s no “road course ace” but I’m thinking the +10 over past performance with Jones at the wheel might be all the team can muster with a good road course driver. You mentioned Jones’ top-10 finishes, but that was with JGR equipment. Seems to me, the only chance for Jones to get a top 10 this weekend is if Petty Ent. as a team (besides the driver) has upgraded their road course program. Do you know of an upgrade in equipment or focus that has happened this year with the 43 team that gives them a shot at a top 10 or solely basing that on the driver change? Thanks!

Jones is a much better road course driver and the handling of the car is the most important thing on these tracks. I think he will do just fine.

Definitely Jones if you’re trying to save some starts. Reddick might be a driver you want to use a lot in the second half of the season.

Thoughts on Matty D? He cranked out some nice road course finishes with LFR, but has obviously struggled a bit with Wood Brothers. Trying to conserve B while staying within striking distance of first place. I have 6 starts with Kurt Busch, Willy B, Bowman.. 9 left with Erik Jones. I currently have Jones and Matty D as my B’s but I feel like I’m gambling taking both of them. Looking forward to your insight

I think I would use Kurt here. He hasn’t run very well on the intermediate tracks this year and he’s always been pretty good at Sonoma and on all road courses.

You have me sold on Jones for a save my drivers week but which driver would you risk with him. 1, 12, 3 or 20

Byron has been better on the intermediate tracks than Kurt this year and Kurt has run more races at Sonoma. Use Kurt here and save Byron for other tracks.

Finished top 15 at the Daytona road course and at the Circuit of the Americas this year, so he has a chance to do well once again.

I have him in my lineup. Not much else to pick from in the c group.

Hi Jeff, The blog does not seem to be updating, or have you discontinued it? The last one that shows is the Sonoma race.


I forgot to publish it this morning. I did so at noon today. It should be available now.

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