Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Kansas Speedway, Hollywood Casino 400

The first race of the Contender round is in the books and Joey Logano secured his spot in the Eliminator round by picking up his first win at Charlotte last Sunday in a race that was postponed by rain on Saturday night. Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kyle Busch were the three biggest losers on the weekend of all the Chase contenders as they were all involved with contact on the track and suffered damage to their cars.

Matt will have the biggest hole to try and climb out of and he along with the rest of the drivers who want to move on to the third round of the Chase will really want to get it done this week at Kansas before heading to Talladega for the final race in the second leg of the Chase.

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400

Kansas Speedway is another of the mile-and-a-half tracks that make up half of the entire Chase series of races. This track is banked a little less than Charlotte but the big differences will be in the track surface and the weather difference between this week and last week. I still look for those drivers who were fast last week to have an advantage over those who struggled as we enter this weekend.

Matt Kenseth: I am going to pick Matt to win this race and move on to the next round. He has won two races here and those wins came in back to back races in 2012 and 2013. Matt has also finished in the top ten here in eleven of his nineteen starts and will do everything he can to win this race and not have to go to Talladega and win that race. This team has been really good on this type of track lately and should have a car capable of getting the job done this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin will be Matt’s biggest competition once again this weekend. Kevin started out the second round with a second place finish which is much better than he started the first round. However, a second place finish doesn’t guarantee him a spot in the second round and all of these drivers know what can happen at Talladega so that means Kevin will do everything he can to win this race and try to eliminate some of his tougher competition as the Chase winds down.

Carl Edwards: Carl is looking for his first career win at Kansas but he has always run very well here. He has eleven top ten finishes in only sixteen races and this is another of the Joe Gibbs drivers that have been dominating the second half of the season. All of these cars will be capable of being at the front of the field all day on Sunday if the teams can make the correct adjustments and the drivers avoid making mistakes.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale is also looking for his first win at this track and now is the time for him to get it and wipe out the deficit he is in after a disappointing finish at Charlotte last weekend. Dale needs two strong finishes in his next two races if he wants to move on the the next round. Even though he is very good at Talladega, he doesn’t want to go there knowing he has to win that race to survive.

Jimmie Johnson: Despite being out of the Chase and struggling for most of the second half of the season you never know when this team will break out and win a couple of races in a row. Jimmie has three wins at Kansas and has finished in the top ten in fifteen of his eighteen starts here. They might be trying some things to get ready for next year but you can never count them out from week to week.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won three races at Kansas during his career and has finished in the top five here an astounding eleven times in his nineteen starts. If Jeff wins this weekend it would be one of his biggest victories in his entire career as it would propel him into the third round of the Chase and keep his dreams alive for another championship in his final season.

Kyle Busch: Kyle finished third in this race last season but that is about where his success here ends. In fifteen career starts, Kyle only has three top ten finishes at this track. After last weekend’s disappointing race, Kyle needs a really good finish to climb back into a spot where he can make it into the third round of the Chase and try to win his first Sprint Cup Championship.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is sitting on the bubble right now in the standings and would like to improve his position this weekend at Kansas where he has one win in eleven starts. Of those eleven starts he has finished in the top ten in five of those races. His teammate, Joey Logano has looked better than Brad on this type of track this season, but Brad knows that he also has a car that is good enough to win at this track.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin is looking for his first career win here to go along with two runner-up finishes he already has here. He had a good start to the second round and has been very good at Kansas during his career. He led ninety-five laps here in the spring race before falling back late and finishing ninth in that race. This is the type of track where Martin can come away with another good finish and just try to stay out of trouble at Talladega and advance again.

Joey Logano: Even though Joey is already qualified for the next round he still wants to win every race he starts. He won this race last season and has finished in the top five here in his last four starts. With nothing to lose this team might take a chance on fuel mileage late in the race to try and steal a win and learn a little about how much fuel they can save for future reference.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Aric Almirola
  • Kyle Larson

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Carl Edwards
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 CHARLOTTE, BANK OF AMERICA 500

With the first cuts of the playoffs past us, the pressure is on once again for the 12 survivors to claim one of the eight available spots for the next cut.

As the first leg of the race, Charlotte should favor the drivers who have a good record on intermediate tracks. With over four months since the Memorial Day race, my only conscious memories of it were that the race was very long and Carl Edwards won. Though slightly shorter than the 600 miles in May, you should still front-load your lineup in an effort to capture the all-important laps led and fast lap numbers.

The top suggested driver for your weekly lineup continues to be Kevin Harvick. Harvick has the combination of track success, track type success, and 2015 success that provides a high probability for success in Charlotte. With a top-10 finish in every Charlotte race since 2013, Harvick is likely to run near the front of the field. He has two wins and the most laps led and fast laps over the last five races. In the May race at Charlotte, Harvick ended up finishing in 9th. This would be considered a success most most drivers, but is actually worse than his 4th place average. Harvick has a 7th place average finish position in large oval tracks in 2015. I cannot ignore his history at the track and will keep having the #4 team in my lineup.

After Harvick, the next two roster spots were difficult to decide. There were many good options, but not any great options for your roster. The choice for spots #2 and #3 were between Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Kurt Busch. With the drivers appearing equal, I leaned more toward the May race as a barometer of who to add to my roster. Carl Edwards won the May race, although he only stayed out front for 25 laps. Edwards has enjoyed four top-10 finishes in his last five races at the track. He is averaging a top-10 finish for all large oval tracks. He started out slowly in 2015, but has improved as the season progressed.

I chose the driver who led the most laps in the May race for the 3rd roster spot. Kurt Busch led 118 laps in the 600-mile race on his way to a 10th place finish. With only two top-10 finishes at Charlotte in his last five races, he has not enjoyed the success at Charlotte as some of the other drivers. Kurt Busch is 3rd in the series in laps led and fast laps through 26 races. Kurt Busch will be a member of my roster with a hope that he matches his May effort. Keep a close eye on Logano and Kenseth in practice and qualifying to see if they deserve the top spot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not much salary cap flexibility for the bottom two spots on my roster. I get frustrated with the caution-causing Alex Bowman during many races, but I think he could outperform his salary value this week. Bowman finished in 26th during the May race and has a 29th place career average finish at the track. If Bowman can stay off the wall and finish inside the top-30, he will provide value for your team. Michael Annett has an underwhelming average finish position of 31st in three races at Charlotte. I will check qualifying and consider a bottom driver for this roster spot, but Annett should be okay this week. As with most weeks, qualifying may have an impact on who rounds out the bottom spots of my roster.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the total number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Charlotte races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Kasey Kahne has a history of success at Charlotte, but is too erratic in 2015 to consider for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his 2015 numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KASEY KAHNE AT CHARLOTTE

  • Average finish position last five Charlotte races: 8th place equals 36 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5.2 equals 5.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 299 equals 29.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 202 equals 20.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 91.3
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $20.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 91.3 divided by $20.75 equals 4.40 points per dollar

Below you will find the value numbers for the last five races at Charlotte. There are only a handful of races remaining in the 2015 season, so be sure to make your picks count.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 3.44
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.49
  • Matt Kenseth 2.38
  • Kurt Busch 1.83
  • Denny Hamlin 1.69
  • Brad Keselowski 1.68
  • Kyle Busch 1.56
  • Joey Logano 1.41
  • Dale Earnhardt 0.93

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 4.40
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.18
  • Jeff Gordon 2.09
  • Carl Edwards 2.00
  • Ryan Newman 1.91
  • Jamie McMurray 1.91
  • Kyle Larson 1.18
  • Clint Bowyer 1.06
  • Paul Menard 1.03
  • Aric Almirola 0.87

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.46
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.73
  • Greg Biffle 1.00

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.26
  • Ricky Stenhouse 2.10
  • Tony Stewart 2.08
  • Trevor Bayne 2.07
  • Cole Whitt 1.68
  • Casey Mears 1.60
  • Danica Patrick 0.79

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Timmy Hill 3.60
  • Michael Annett 3.52
  • Alex Kennedy 2.73
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.62
  • Alex Bowman 2.32
  • Reed Sorenson 2.15
  • David Gilliland 1.84
  • Brett Moffitt 1.72
  • Landon Cassill 1.61
  • Josh Wise 1.49
  • JJ Yeley 1.40
  • David Ragan 0.80
  • Justin Allgaier 0.46
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Bank of America 500

Kevin Harvick did what he needed to do to qualify for the second round of the Chase by winning the race at Dover this past weekend. Dale Earnhardt Jr. did what he had to do and beat Jamie McMurray by one position and moved on the the next round while Jimmie Johnson had mechanical problems that knocked him out of the playoffs. The second round starts next week and it should only get more exciting as the season comes to a close and we crown the 2015 Sprint Cup Champion.

BANK OF AMERICA 500

The first race of the second round will be held at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the running of the Bank of America 500. Charlotte is another of the mile-and-a-half tracks that represent the majority of the races in the Chase. The points will also be reset this weekend for twelve drivers who have qualified for the second round the next three races will determine who will be in the final eight.

Kevin Harvick: I am going to pick Kevin to win his second race in a row and qualify for the third round of the Chase right away. Kevin has won two of the last five points races here including this race last year. He has also finished in the top ten in his last five points races at Charlotte and this team has been fast every week for the past two seasons. I’m sure none of the Chase drivers would have been disappointed if Kevin wouldn’t have made it to the second round because he is going to be hard to stop as he looks for back-to-back Sprint Cup championships.

Jimmie Johnson: Although I’m sure Jimmie is very disappointed by not making the second round, but he always runs well at Charlotte and has seven wins here to prove that point. His latest win here came last season during the Coca-Cola 600 and he has run well at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year once again.

Matt Kenseth: Matt always runs well at this track also. He has won two races here with the last of those coming in the fall of 2011. All of the Joe Gibbs teams are still running well and all four of them have made it to the second round of the Chase. The speed these guys have shown for the past few months shows that they are all capable of winning the championship this year and Matt’s poise makes him one of the drivers to keep your eye on.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is still looking for his first win at Charlotte, but he has finished in the top five in ten of his twenty-three starts here. Kyle has been using his head so far during the Chase and that is what it takes to win a championship under this format. Don’t take unnecessary chances and just make sure you get a good finish and you can move on to the next round in each of the first two rounds. After that the strategy will change a little bit.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff’s has kept his hopes of winning another championship in his final year alive. He has been very good at Charlotte during his career with five wins and twenty-four top ten finishes in only forty five starts. Even though he doesn’t have a win yet this year he is still running consistent enough to be a threat to win a race most any weekend and keep advancing.

Carl Edwards: Carl won the Coca-Cola 600 this year and has finished in the top ten here in fourteen of his twenty-one career starts. His car might not always be good throughout the race, but they never give up on their adjustments and it always seems that Carl is in the top ten towards the end of the race and has a chance to pickup another win if everything falls just right.

Denny Hamlin: Denny is another driver looking for his first win at this track during a points race. However, he did win the Sprint All-Star race this year and has finished in the top ten in twelve of his twenty starts at this track. Denny has been quietly going about his business and won the first race of the Chase at Chicagoland Speedway which gave him a free pass the last two weeks. This week they will be back on the top of their game.

Jamie McMurray: Even though Jamie didn’t qualify for the second round he is still very good at Charlotte. He has two wins here during his career and has ten top ten finishes in his twenty-six starts here. I think this team should be proud that they made the Chase for the first time and now they have something to look forward to improving on next season.

Joey Logano: Joey is another of the Chase drivers who is still seeking his first win at this track, but he has run very well here during his short career. He has finished in the top ten in seven of his thirteen starts and just needs to make one more correct call late in a race to come away with his first win here. I think this team will do well for the rest of the Chase because Joey is very good at this style of track.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has four wins at this track and has finished in the top ten in thirteen of his twenty-three starts here with nine of those finishes being in the top five. Even though they didn’t qualify for the Chase, this team will do everything they can to pick up a win before the end of the season so they have something to build on for next season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Carl Edwards
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Ryan Newman

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DOVER, AAA 400

With one race until the initial playoff cuts, there are some unexpected drivers facing elimination. As usual, the best strategy is to front-load your lineup with your top three drivers and round out your roster with budget options. I tried to find a balance between risky and conservative drivers in a week where anything goes for some of the top teams in the series.

From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, the results will be more unpredictable than average results at Dover. Drivers will take more risks than average behind the wheel, with their fuel strategies, and with their setups. Know if you want a conservative or risky approach this week and choose the drivers whose Chase standings match your strategy.

FRONT-LOAD YOUR LINEUP

As usual, the first spot of my lineup is dedicated to the driver who has earned 22 top-10 finishes in his first 25 races in 2015. Kevin Harvick has found success at the Monster Mile. With three top-10 finishes in his last five Dover races, Harvick has found consistency at the track. During the same time span, Harvick is second in fast laps and laps led so he has a good chance to take advantage of those numbers. In May’s race, Harvick led 91 laps on his way to a 2nd place finish. In five steep tracks in 2015, four have resulted in a top-5 finish. With the most laps led and fast laps in 2015, Harvick has a combination of track success, track type success and 2015. That translates to a high probability of success in this week’s race. Harvick needs to win to qualify for the next round of the playoffs. He will be taking risks to win the race. This can be helpful or detrimental to your lineup. If you want a conservative approach, I would suggest another driver like Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth, or Brad Keselowski.

My next lineup recommendation is not due to 2015 success. Jimmie Johnson has 16 top-10 finishes in 2015 and a 12.2 average finish position, but has struggled in stretches. Anything short of a championship team is a disappointment for the #48 car. His track success is the reason that he gets my roster recommendation. Although he only led 23 laps during the race, Jimmie Johnson won the Dover race earlier this season. Over the last five races at the track, Johnson has earned three victories. He is first in laps led and fast laps by a wide margin during this time period. Johnson has an impressive 13 top-5 finishes at the since since 2005. Jimmie Johnson should be near the top when the checkered flag flies. With a solid run, Johnson will qualify for the next round so I can see Chad Knaus playing it safe with this team.

Kyle Busch had a forgettable race in Dover earlier this year. He was running 3rd with 25 laps left in the race when a collision with Brian Scott sent him to a 36th place finish. We are hoping for a better result this time around. Kyle Busch has earned three top-10 finishes in his last five Dover races. During these five races, Busch is 3rd in fast laps and laps led. He has seen long-term success at the track with the 2nd-most laps led at the track since 2005. In fourteen races in 2015, Kyle Busch has eight finishes inside the top-10. Unless someone changes my mind in qualifying, I will go with the 18 car for my 3rd team. Kyle Busch is at the cut line for the next round. Like Harvick, the Chase standings increase your risk, but Kyle Busch is not in the desperate situation that we see in the 4 team.

FILLING OUT THE BOTTOM

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little room for the remaining roster spots. David Ragan finished in 13th in the May race. He has a 24th place average finish position in 2015. He looks like he has the speed for most weeks, but cannot get the breaks to fall his way. Over the last five Dover races, he has a 25th place average. He provides upside as a budget option. Landon Cassill looks to be improving slightly as the season progresses. Cassill finished 23rd during the May race and has a 30th place average in 2015. Both drivers should provide value this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average fantasy live points earned by race by each driver over the last five Dover races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that will dictate which drivers are expected to provide the most value this week. Brad Keselowski has earned three top-10 finishes over the last five races. He missed my lineup spot to Kyle Busch. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

KYLE BUSCH AT DOVER

  • Average finish position last five Dover races: 11.6 equals 32.4 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative four equals (-4) Fantasy Live points)
  • Laps led: 109 laps led equals 10.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 109 fast laps equals 10.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned by race: 50.2
  • Fantasy Live Salary cap figure: $27.25
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 50.2 divided by $27.25 equals 1.84 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points for all drivers entered in this week’s race. Good luck as you make a push to the top of your league standings.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.50
  • Kevin Harvick 2.90
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.03
  • Kyle Busch 1.84
  • Brad Keselowski 1.84
  • Joey Logano 1.47
  • Denny Hamlin 1.29
  • Matt Kenseth 1.28
  • Kurt Busch 1.06

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Jeff Gordon 2.88
  • Clint Bowyer 2.18
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.08
  • Kasey Kahne 1.95
  • Kyle Larson 1.88
  • Aric Almirola 1.64
  • Paul Menard 1.62
  • Carl Edwards 0.99
  • Jamie McMurray 0.93
  • Ryan Newman 0.80

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.00
  • Greg Biffle 1.10
  • Austin Dillon 0.67

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.40
  • Danica Patrick 2.23
  • Cole Whitt 1.81
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.64
  • Casey Mears 1.43
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.17
  • Justin Allgaier 0.74
  • Trevor Bayne (-0.79)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Jeb Burton 3.80
  • Brett Moffitt 3.21
  • Travis Kvapil 2.89*
  • Alex Kennedy 2.73*
  • JJ Yeley 2.55
  • David Ragan 2.39
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.22
  • Alex Bowman 2.22
  • Timmy Hill 2.06
  • Travis Kvapil 1.93
  • Josh Wise 1.84
  • David Gilliland 1.75
  • Landon Cassill 1.75
  • Michael Annett 0.39

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.