Pocono Raceway is a challenging track to forecast from a Fantasy Live perspective. Unlike Dover last week, there is no driver who dominates the race. The laps led and fast laps numbers are spread out. While I would still recommend front-loading your lineup, it is not as necessary to try this strategy. I would keep an eye on qualifying and try to benefit from start-to-finish differential if possible. While not wildly unpredictable like a restrictor plate track, Pocono offers an opportunity to take some risks in your lineup if you are behind in the standings.
There are many drivers who have favorable numbers at the track, but nobody who stands out as a must-start driver. My first roster spot will go to a fan favorite who won both races last year in Pocono. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has an average finish position of 8.4 over the last five Pocono races. He is one of the best drivers in the series in 2015 and has a high probability for success. While he is second-best in the series with 82% of laps in the top-15 since 2005, Junior has only led 44 laps during this same time span. Historically, he has nine top-10 finishes in his last 20 races at the track. Junior is hard to keep off your roster due to last year’s success at the track, but the upside may not be as high as one would think. Earnhardt Jr. is a good choice for those at the top of the standings, but I would not define him as a must start.
While he does not have the dominant numbers in Pocono, keeping Kevin Harvick out of your lineup is difficult. Harvick has been the best driver in Fantasy Live in total number of points earned and has provided the best value per Fantasy Live dollar of any regular driver this season. Over the last five Pocono races, Harvick has an average finish of 11.6 and only five laps led. He is consistent at the track, but not dominant. He has enjoyed nine top-10 finishes and 19 top-20 finishes in the last 20 races.
The spot for the third driver in my lineup is a toss-up between Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski. Gordon has the most Fantasy Live points in the series over the last five races. However, Gordon has been underwhelming so far in 2015. Even though his track numbers are slightly worse, Brad Keselowski is my recommendation for your weekly lineup. With 121 laps led over the last five Pocono races, Brad Keselowski has the second-most in the series (Jimmie Johnson with 220). With 75% of his laps in the top-15 during the same time span, Keselowski shows enough consistency. His long-term numbers are not extremely impressive, but he does have three top-10 finishes in ten races. I may change this pick after qualifying and will keep a close eye on Keselowski, Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson.
Since I decided to front-load my lineup, there is little salary cap room to work with for the final two roster spots. One of the reasons why I decided to front-load my lineup is because there were some budget options I liked for this week. In two Pocono starts last year, Michael Annett over-achieved with a 21st place average. While his team is near the bottom most weeks, he has the potential to provide excellent value. If he matches last year’s production, Annett will average six points per dollar and is well worth the risk. Cole Whitt, with a 25th place average in two races last year, is the other budget driver. Whitt’s 2.95 points per dollar at Pocono is second-best in the series. I will keep an eye on qualifying, but I like these two drivers this week.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to force us to use strategy with our line-ups. Our formula calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Pocono races. Next, we divide that number by the current Fantasy Live salary cap value to show which drivers are the most likely to provide value. Jeff Gordon missed my lineup despite earning the most Fantasy Live points of any driver over the past five Pocono races. As a consolation prize, we will use Gordon’s numbers to further illustrate the points per dollar formula.
JEFF GORDON AT POCONO
- Average finish position last five Pocono races: 5.8 equals 38.2 points per race
- Start-to-finish differential: Plus 8.2 equals 8.2 points per race
- Laps led: 80 equals 8 points per race
- Fast laps: 63 laps equals 6.3 points per race
- Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 60.7
- Fantasy Live salary cap number: $26.75
- Points per dollar: 60.7 / 26.75 = 2.27 points per dollar
Below you will find the points per dollar figure for each driver in the series. This week’s recommended picks are highlighted in bold. We will use the 2015 for all rookie drivers with no track history. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jeff Gordon 2.27
- Ryan Newman 2.06
- Brad Keselowski 1.98
- Jimmie Johnson 1.90
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.78
- Kurt Busch 1.42
- Jamie McMurray 1.37
- Kevin Harvick 1.19
- Joey Logano 1.06
- Denny Hamlin 0.66
- Kyle Busch 0.52
- Matt Kenseth 0.33
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Clint Bowyer 1.66
- Kasey Kahne 1.65
- Kyle Larson 1.54
- Martin Truex 1.35
- Aric Almirola 0.72
- Carl Edwards 0.70
- Paul Menard 0.38
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Tony Stewart 2.33
- Sam Hornish Jr. 2.07
- Greg Biffle 2.06
- AJ Allmendinger 0.15
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Cole Whitt 2.95
- Justin Allgaier 2.48
- David Ragan 2.46
- Casey Mears 2.00
- Josh Wise 1.87
- JJ Yeley 1.57
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.47
- Landon Cassill 1.12
- Danica Patrick 0.07
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Michael Annett 6.00
- Ty Dillon 2.84*
- Alex Bowman 2.38
- Matt DiBenedetto 2.24*
- Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
- Jeb Burton 1.33*
- Travis Kvapil n/a
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.