Pocono is not known for multi-car wrecks and most fantasy lineups were affected by the thirteen car incident. We should be able to gain some of our lost points back this week as NASCAR moves north for the second road course of the season. Generally, Watkins Glen is a predictable track, and we should expect some clear frontrunners. You should expect to have a successful week, as there are some good bargains from road course specialists to take advantage of this week.
Marcus Ambrose is the clear first choice at Watkins Glen. Ambrose is the only driver to lead a lap in the last five races and is second in total laps led in the last five years with 97. His average finish position is third among active drivers since 2005, his average running position is second, and he has the highest loop data score. With 121 laps where he was the fastest driver on the track and running in the top 15 for 85% of his laps, every data point reveals a high probability for success.
Along with Ambrose, Kyle Busch is also a clear choice for the road course. Kyle Busch has led the most laps of any driver in the last five years and boasts the best average finish position of 4.6 since 2005 at the track. He was in the top 15 for 92% of his laps and has an average running position of 5.4. Like Ambrose, Kyle Busch is an obvious pick with a high probability of success.
The third pick will go to AJ Allmendinger, who provides tremendous value due to his low salary cap figure. With an 8.8 average finish position, Allmendinger has the fifth-best average finish position since 2005. His average running position of 11.5 and 70% of laps in the top 15 are not as dominant as Ambrose or Busch, but there is enough consistency to pick him. Allmendinger’s biggest drawback is only 8 laps led and 8 fast laps in the last five years. Despite this concern, he should be worth the start.
Landon Cassill provides decent value, and I am picking him this week to add a better fifth driver. With an average finish position of 25.5 and a loop data of 40, Cassill’s numbers are not particularly impressive. He has, however, the best fantasy points per dollar since 2008. I suggested Cassill last week and he wrecked. I hope he makes up for it at Watkins Glen. Boris Said, with the same salary cap figure, was tempting here. I cannot get over how poor the equipment was during his last start at Sonoma. You could easily start Said instead of Cassill, but I will stick with the 40 Car.
These picks will leave enough salary cap room for Brad Keselowski as the fifth options. Initially, I was gearing to pick Tony Stewart here until I realized I had enough cap room for Keselowski. I was surprised that Keselowski has a lower than expected average running position of 12.3. He only has run in the top 15 for 69% of his laps. Both of these numbers are respectable and reveal his consistency. These numbers surprised me because Keselowski’s average finish position since 2005 is the second-best in the series with 6.5. Keselowski has a ticket punched for the chase. He could coast the last five races, but has a competitive streak. Keselowski will take risks to win this week at Watkins Glen.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on Nascar.com combines fast laps, laps led, final position, and start-to-finish position differential. In order to prevent us from simply picking the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live utilizes a salary cap format. The goal is to find value in your picks.
The formula in this article basically calculates the total number of points accumulated in their scoring system and divides this number by their salary cap figure. We can then determine how many points to expect per fantasy dollar. Since I left him out of my lineup, we will look at Tony Stewart’s Watkins Glen Statistics as an example.
TONY STEWART AT WATKINS GLEN
- Total laps led last five years: 34 = 3.4 Fantasy Live points per race
- Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Finish position: 13th place average = 31 Fantasy Live points per race
- Start to finish differential: Minus 6 = Negative 6 Fantasy Live points per race
- Average number of points per race: 28.40
- Salary Cap figure on Fantasy Live: $22.75
- Points per dollar: 28.4 / 22.75 = 1.25 fantasy points per dollar
Please review the fantasy points per dollar figures below for Watkins Glen with this week’s picks in bold. For rookies with no history at the track, we will use their 2014 averages to give you an idea what to expect from them.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Kyle Busch 2.04
- Brad Keselowski 1.81
- Carl Edwards 1.70
- Clint Bowyer 1.53
- Matt Kenseth 1.53
- Kevin Harvick 1.29
- Jimmie Johnson 1.01
- Joey Logano 0.92
- Kasey Kahne 0.91
- Jeff Gordon 0.68
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.54
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Marcus Ambrose 1.99
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.60
- Austin Dillon 1.46
- Tony Stewart 1.25
- Greg Biffle 1.23
- Kyle Larson 1.21
- Kyle Busch 1.16
- Paul Menard 1.14
- Ryan Newman 1.02
- Brian Vickers 0.92
- Jamie McMurray 0.46
- Aric Almirola 0.43
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.08
- AJ Allmendinger 2.05
- Casey Mears 1.97
- Justin Allgaier 1.31
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Ragan 2.63
- David Gilliland 2.16
- Cole Whitt 1.77
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Landon Cassill 4.28
- Ryan Truex 2.82
- Michael Annett 2.26
- Reed Sorenson 1.57
- Josh Wise 0.80
- Boris Said 0.80
- Joe Nemecheck 0.47
- Michael McDowell (-2.15)
