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Fantasy NASCAR

2014 New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Camping World RV Sales 301

We are now half-way through the season and there are only eight more races left to run before the start of the Chase. Aric Almirola most likely ensured himself a spot in the Chase with his win at Daytona last weekend. Now there are only five spots left for drivers without a win and that number could get even smaller if we can get a few more first time winners this year in the next eight races.

CAMPING WORLD RV SALES 301

This week the series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Camping World RV Sales 301. NHMS is slightly longer than a mile and this is one of the shortest races of the season. This short flat track will be a huge difference for the drivers as compared to racing at Daytona last weekend. The closer we get to the Chase, the more desperate some drivers are becoming and we could see a lot of fireworks over the next couple of months.

Tony Stewart: I am giving the nod to Tony this week after a disappointing weekend at Daytona for this team. Tony has won three races at this track during his career and has finished in the top five in almost half of all the races he has run here. Tony is going to let it all hang out to get a win and get his team into the Chase and he isn’t going to wait for the last few races to do that. He makes the Chase this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has won a couple of races at this track and has also finished in the top five in just under half of the races he has run at this track. Denny would like to get another win before the Chase starts and build some momentum for his team as they get ready to compete for a championship. Denny is good on all of the short, flat tracks and this weekend should be no different.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has won three races at Loudon and this team has looked very good over the past month. I think they will be very good once again this weekend and will probably trade a lot of information with Tony Stewart to get both of those cars set up for a shot at visiting victory lane this weekend. Kurt is a good pick for someone who wants to make a move in their leagues this week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three wins at this track and has also finished in the top ten in seventeen of his twenty-four starts here. This team would like nothing better than to eliminate drivers they think would be a threat to them winning another championship and they will take chances to get another win and take that spot away from someone who really needs it.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is another driver with multiple wins at this track and has looked very good on all of the short tracks this season. They would love to get another win and start building more confidence that they not only can compete every week, but win races which is what it is going to take to win the championship this season.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won the race here last September and although he is sitting in a good spot points wise, he would really like to get a win or two before the Chase starts to guarantee the spot and get some bonus points. He has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run here. I think the only way he gets knocked out of the Chase is if he takes too many wild chances and starts finishing races in the garage instead of on the track.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won his only race here back in 2006, but he has also finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run here. The way this team has looked all year you can’t bet against them at anytime. I think Kevin will be very fast right off the hauler this week and will probably qualify in the top five. That gets you a great spot on pit road and that can make all the difference between winning and losing here.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has three wins here during his career and has finished in the top ten in almost two-thirds of the races he has run here. This team has been average for the last couple of months, but this could be the place they break out of that funk and could easily get their first win of the season this week and get that coveted spot in the Chase. Even though he is the second driver in points without a win and will probably make the Chase anyway, a few poor weeks could drop him out of that spot.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has yet to win a race at this track, but he has only run here nine times. In those nine races he has come away with five top ten finishes and this is the type of track that he really loves to compete on. With the speeds they have put up in qualifying this season and the importance of pit selections at New Hampshire, this team could find themselves starting up front once again with the best pit stall too.

Kyle Busch: Kyle finished second in both of the races run at Loudon last season and wants to improve on those spots this weekend. He has eight top ten finishes in eighteen starts here and won a race here back in 2006. This team is still looking for more consistency as we near the Chase.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kurt Busch
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Tony Stewart
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Ryan Newman

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Jeff Burton
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Tony Stewart
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Kurt Busch
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Ryan Newman

Stay Away From: Jamie McMurray

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Daytona, Coke Zero 400

After a Kentucky race that made you ecstatic if you started Brad Keselowski, we travel south for the holiday weekend to Daytona. Daytona is one of the most exciting tracks of the season and will make you want to tear your hair out in Fantasy NASCAR. With restrictor plates, big crashes, and unpredictable results, the end result is that choosing a successful lineup has more to do with luck than skill. The good news is that there are plenty of low cost options with the ability to finish in the top twenty. This week provides a great opportunity to gain or lose on your opponents.

The driver with the most fantasy live points over the course of the last five summer races is Tony Stewart. Stewart started the 2014 season slowly, but has improved as the summer races began. Stewart has led the most laps of any driver since 2008. He also averages an eighth place finish in the same period of time. Stewart has a high probability to run near the top this week.

After Stewart, there are six drivers who have averaged a thirteenth place finish or better over the last five years. Who you choose from this pack of driver should be determined by your personal preference because little separates these drivers statistically. The drivers in this second group include Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse, and Brian Vickers.

Using the process of elimination, we can trim down this second group of drivers. Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers have not led a lap in five years, and I cannot recommend drivers who have led fewer laps than Joe Nemecheck at Daytona. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished in 11th place last year, and I cannot recommend him because of the small sample at the track.

Because of the salary cap restrictions, we can only choose two of the three remaining drivers for our roster. Matt Kenseth has led 107 laps over the last five races, second only to Stewart. He has also led a lap in four of the five races showing consistency. With a 12th place average since 2003, Kenseth proves to be a solid option.

There is little to separate Harvick from Kurt Busch. Harvick has led a few more laps and has won two races in 2014, but I would recommend Kurt Busch over Harvick due to Kurt Busch’s lower salary cap figure. Kurt Busch has the second-best average of any driver over the past ten summer races at Daytona.

With a 14th place finish last year at Daytona and a history of providing value on restrictor plate tracks, Danica Patrick is my fourth choice for this week’s roster. Patrick has shown improvement over the course of 2014, and she will be worth picking if she continues the trend. With only $10.75 remaining for the fifth driver, the last pick goes to David Ragan, who is an overachiever at Daytona and Talladega. Ragan has averaged a 20th place finish over the last five summer races, and I am glad there was enough salary cap money left over for Ragan. I like Michael Waltrip and the Labontes as fantasy live options this week and could be used depending on how you manage this week’s lineup.

Our salary cap value formula basically determines average total number of fantasy live points over the past five summer Daytona races and divides that total by the salary cap figure provided by fantasy live on nascar.com. We can then determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

The Fantasy Live scoring system is a combination of laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential.

For additional clarification on our formula, please review Kevin Harvick’s details below.

KEVIN HARVICK AT DAYTONA

  • Total laps led at the last five summer Daytona races: 44 (8.80 per race = 4.40 points)
  • Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Final position: 12th place average = 32 points
  • Start to finish differential: Plus seven = 7 points
  • Total points per race: 43.40
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points ranking: 43.4/$23.75= 1.59 points per fantasy dollar

For rookies with no history at the track, we will use the data from the 2014 to help you know how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. You will notice that there is more value picks than average. This week’s picks are in bold along with the fantasy points-per-dollar for all drivers.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.38
  • Kasey Kahne 1.23
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.15
  • Kyle Busch 1.04
  • Joey Logano 1.04
  • Brad Keselowski 1.01
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.88
  • Carl Edwards 0.86
  • Jeff Gordon 0.66
  • Clint Bowyer 0.51

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.40
  • Brian Vickers 2.02
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
  • Kurt Busch 1.62
  • Denny Hamlin 1.44
  • Jamie McMurray 1.40
  • Austin Dillon 1.40
  • Greg Biffle 1.36
  • Aric Almirola 1.26
  • Ryan Newman 1.15
  • Kyle Larson 1.13
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.87
  • Paul Menard 0.84
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.15

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.77
  • Justin Allgaier 1.35
  • Casey Mears 1.14
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.03

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Bobby Labonte 3.70
  • David Ragan 3.00
  • Michael Waltrip 2.58
  • David Gilliland 2.18
  • Cole Whitt 1.62
  • Trevor Bayne (-0.16)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Terry Labonte 4.90
  • Reed Sorenson 3.85
  • Landon Cassill 3.20
  • Josh Wise 2.04
  • Michael Annett 1.95
  • Joe Nemecheck 1.31
  • Ryan Truex 0.78
  • Michael McDowell (-2.00)